NAB Morning Call Shutdown showdown ready to end? RBA’s easing over?
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Nov 10, 2025 Ray Attrill, Senior FX and markets strategist at NAB Markets Research, dives into the recent optimism surrounding the potential end of the US government shutdown, which has buoyed equity markets. He discusses the RBA's Andrew Bauser's hawkish remarks that raise questions about the central bank's easing cycle. Additionally, Attrill shares insights on Australian consumer sentiment declining and the implications for future rates, alongside updates on inflation expectations in New Zealand and key upcoming survey data that could shift central bank policies.
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Markets Assume Shutdown Resolution Imminent
- Markets are pricing a near-certain end to the US shutdown, driving risk-on moves across equities and currencies.
- That optimism could be premature if the agreement is only a short-term patch requiring revisit in January.
RBA Signals Easing Cycle May Be Over
- RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser warned Australia may be 'boxed in' by capacity constraints and limited spare capacity.
- That view, plus inflation still above target midpoint, reduces the chance of further rate cuts in Australia.
Inflation Path Keeps Cuts Uncertain
- Market pricing still shows some odds of a 25bp RBA cut, but forecasts imply inflation ending above 2% at horizon.
- NAB's view of one more cut is now clearly skewed toward no further easing.