School of War Ep 202: Fred Kagan on Ukraine’s Attack and the Future of War
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Jun 3, 2025 Fred Kagan, a senior fellow and director of the Critical Threats Project at AEI, discusses Ukraine’s bold drone strikes on Russian air assets. He highlights the remarkable tactics employed and the implications for modern warfare. The conversation delves into the complexities of nuclear deterrence and the risks of escalation. Kagan also emphasizes the importance of surprise in combat, examining how traditional strategies adapt to high-tech warfare. Ultimately, he critiques the dynamics influencing military strategies and peace negotiations in the ongoing conflict.
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Ukraine's Surprise Drone Attack
- Ukraine executed a surprise drone attack on Russian strategic bomber bases deep inside Russia, from the Arctic Circle to near Mongolia.
- They used containerized drones that launched automatically and struck valuable Russian bombers, capturing battle damage footage.
Nuclear Triad Nuance
- The attacked Russian bombers are nuclear-capable but not core to the nuclear deterrent.
- Russia's main deterrent is their ballistic submarines and ICBMs, which were untouched by the strike.
Dual-Use Assets Are Fair Targets
- Using dual-use assets in war makes those assets fair game for attack.
- Targeting nuclear-capable bombers used against Ukraine is self-defense, not destabilizing escalation.
