Hold Your Fire!

Will Myanmar’s Devastating Earthquake Impact its Civil War?

14 snips
Apr 4, 2025
Richard Horsey, a senior analyst and Myanmar expert at the International Crisis Group, delves into the aftermath of a devastating earthquake in Myanmar. He discusses the significant challenges faced by relief efforts, including the impact of U.S. aid cuts and the military's absence from rescue operations. The conversation highlights China’s rapid response and its geopolitical implications, the potential political risks for military leader Min Aung Hlaing, and the role of ethnic armed groups amidst ongoing conflict. Horsey also explores ASEAN's limited yet constructive role in the crisis.
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INSIGHT

Catastrophic Shallow Earthquake

  • A 7.7 magnitude quake with a shallow 10km depth caused catastrophic damage around Mandalay and nearby areas.
  • Richard Horsey warns the death toll (~3,000) is likely to rise as bodies are recovered from rubble.
INSIGHT

Infrastructure Collapse Amplifies Needs

  • Communications, power and transport networks were heavily damaged, disrupting supply chains and market functioning.
  • Richard Horsey emphasises immediate shortages of food, water and logistics across affected areas.
ADVICE

Act Fast With Search And Rescue

  • Donors should mobilise search-and-rescue and medical capacity rapidly rather than wait.
  • Horsey notes the US response was slow and under-resourced compared with China's rapid deployment.
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