The podcast discusses the impact of hybrid work on the real estate market, including the decrease in office occupancy in downtown districts and the increase in residential demand. It explores the need to redesign office spaces for a hybrid work environment and highlights the importance of understanding customer needs in building development. The podcast also touches on the challenges of providing affordable housing in urban areas and explores global demographic trends and misconceptions.
Hybrid work has led to a decline in urban cores' populations, with people migrating to the suburbs and not returning, especially in cities heavily reliant on office-oriented spaces like San Francisco.
The persistence of the pivot to working from home has transformed the places we work, live, shop, and socialize, presenting a unique opportunity to rethink real estate for our changing future by focusing on offering more enjoyable and flexible workspaces and adapting the retail ecosystem to be more experiential and community-focused.
Deep dives
The Impact of Hybrid Work on Office Attendance and Downtown Districts
Hybrid work has become a lasting trend and has stabilized office attendance rates. Workers prefer the flexibility of remote work and expect their employers to support it. As a result, downtown districts with high density office buildings are experiencing fewer people in offices and, consequently, fewer people in shops and public spaces. On the other hand, there is a minor resurgence in retail and increased demand for residential usage as people prioritize homes closer to their workplaces.
The Ripple Effects on Urban Cores, Suburban Migration Patterns, and Hardest Hit Cities
Hybrid work has led to a decline in urban cores' populations as people migrated to the suburbs during the pandemic, and they have not returned. Cities like San Francisco, which heavily rely on office-oriented spaces, have been most affected. Factors such as urban structure, transportation access, and housing affordability contribute to varying impacts across cities. Tokyo, with its diversified urban structure and strong public transport links, has experienced more moderate effects.
The Future of Office Space, Quality, and Impact on Retail Ecosystem
Office demand in 2030 is projected to be around 13% lower, potentially reducing office real estate values by up to 42% in severe scenarios. Quality becomes paramount in attracting employees back to the office, with a focus on offering more enjoyable and flexible workspaces. The retail ecosystem adapts by becoming more experiential, offering community-focused activities, healthcare, and education. Commodity purchases shift online, while delivery points and alternative uses for office spaces are explored, such as gyms, healthcare facilities, and underground warehouses.
Hybrid work has roiled the real estate market—and it’s here to stay, according to new research from the McKinsey Global Institute. On this episode of The McKinsey Podcast, McKinsey senior partners Aditya Sanghvi and Jonathan Woetzel chat with global editorial director Lucia Rahilly about how the persistence of the pivot to working from home has transformed the places we work, live, shop, and socialize—and about the unique opportunity hybrid presents to rethink real estate for our changing future.