Real-Time Inflation Tracking and Forecasting: A Deep Dive into Open Brand’s Proprietary Consumer Price Index
Apr 1, 2025
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Greg Munves, CEO of OpenBrand, and Ralph McLaughlin, Chief Economist, dive deep into real-time inflation tracking methods. They unveil their proprietary Consumer Price Index for Durable and Personal Goods, boasting remarkable accuracy. The duo discusses how this index helps manufacturers and retailers optimize pricing strategies in a volatile market. Their scenario-based inflation forecasts empower investors and policymakers with tailored insights. They also shed light on complex discount dynamics and innovative methodologies that are reshaping how we understand consumer pricing.
OpenBrand’s real-time Consumer Price Index offers a more timely, accurate alternative to traditional inflation measures, validated with a low mean absolute percentage error.
The company's scenario-based forecasting model allows retailers and investors to customize predictions, enhancing financial strategies in a rapidly evolving economic landscape.
Deep dives
Overview of OpenBrand's Data Strategy
OpenBrand focuses on leveraging massive datasets to provide accurate insights into real-time pricing trends. By collecting pricing information on approximately 200,000 products daily, the company aims to offer a more timely alternative to traditional inflation measures like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI). Their proprietary Consumer Price Index for durable and personal goods is designed to accurately reflect market price changes, allowing users to make informed decisions faster than the BLS can report. This approach addresses concerns about the slow and infrequent nature of government data collection methods, positioning OpenBrand as a leader in delivering real-time economic insights.
Innovative Index Structure and Methodology
OpenBrand's Consumer Price Index employs a unique structure that offers a singular index published weekly, providing more granular data than traditional measures. By mapping the index to existing BLS categories and avoiding complex adjustments seen in governmental methodologies, OpenBrand aims to deliver clearer and more reliable price data. The index's weighting strategy prioritizes products that have been longer in the marketplace, enhancing stability and reducing noise in price measurements. This method not only improves accuracy but also helps users better understand price stability in various consumer categories.
Forecasting Capabilities and Use Cases
OpenBrand's forecasting model is designed to provide clients with both baseline and scenario-based forecasts, allowing for tailored insights based on market conditions. The ability to adjust forecasts based on user assumptions adds significant value for retailers and investors who need precise pricing strategies. The accuracy of the model has been validated against the BLS CPI, demonstrating a low mean absolute percentage error, indicating that OpenBrand's model can effectively predict market trends. This capability empowers users to make timely financial decisions and stay ahead in a rapidly changing economic landscape.
Future Developments and Market Impact
Looking ahead, OpenBrand plans to incorporate consumer sentiment data alongside their pricing models to enhance forecasting accuracy further. By running a daily consumer tracking survey, the company aims to measure how consumer perceptions align with actual purchasing behaviors, creating a more holistic view of the market. Additionally, OpenBrand is exploring the impact of pricing changes by assessing market influence, enabling more refined analysis of pricing strategies. This ongoing evolution suggests that OpenBrand is committed to continuously improving their offerings and adapting to the dynamic needs of their clients and the broader market.
In this episode of the Private Equity Funcast, host Ryan Milligan speaks with OpenBrand CEO Greg Munves and Chief Economist Ralph McLaughlin about their innovative approach to tracking inflation through the OpenBrand Consumer Price Index for Durable and Personal Goods (CPI-DPG). The CPI-DPG is updated weekly, providing a third independent data point for measuring inflation. Its accuracy has been validated with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as low as 1.6% in specific categories. Additionally, OpenBrand offers scenario-based inflation forecasts, enabling companies and investors to tailor predictions to their expectations and market views.
Munves and McLaughlin also outline practical use cases:
• Manufacturers and retailers optimizing their pricing and promotional strategies. • Investors seeking early insights on market inflation trends to refine financial models. • Policymakers evaluating the effects of economic policies.
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