In this engaging discussion, Ernie Tedeschi, former Chief Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers and current Director of Economics at The Budget Lab, dives into the intricacies of inflation reporting. He reveals the factors driving inflation and addresses the tools economists have—or wish they had—for effective analysis. The conversation also uncovers how high interest rates are impacting consumer sentiment and highlights the concerning trend of men dropping out of the labor force, sparking a call for policy action.
The adaptation of economic tools by economists during crises, notably through quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, highlights the importance of learning from past recessions.
Demographic shifts, especially the retirement of the baby boomer generation, necessitate policy interventions to maintain job growth and address labor market disparities.
Deep dives
The Role of Economists in Policy Response
Economists have played a significant role in shaping policy responses during economic crises, as highlighted by their swift action during the COVID-19 pandemic. The adaptation of economic tools since the Great Recession allowed for a more decisive response, with measures like quantitative easing and fiscal stimulus, largely influenced by economists' experiences from past recessions. For instance, the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan reflected the lessons learned from earlier hesitations, leading to broader bipartisan support. However, while economists provide valuable insights, it is crucial to recognize that they are only one perspective among various disciplines in addressing complex societal issues.
The Challenges of Measuring Inflation
The podcast discusses the complexities of measuring inflation, particularly with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. While CPI is widely known and reports monthly data, the PCE is preferred by the Federal Reserve for its 2% inflation target. Inflation trends over recent months have indicated stubborn disinflation, with core measures like housing prices affecting overall perspectives on economic recovery. Understanding the differences and dynamics between these metrics is crucial, especially when interpreting high inflation levels in specific categories like housing, which may not reflect the broader economic conditions.
Data Collection and Economic Analysis
Effective economic policy-making relies on accurate data collection and analysis, as emphasized by the need for timely insights at the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). The CEA aims to integrate robust economic data into the policy discussion, ensuring that decision-makers understand economic implications comprehensively. However, there is a recognized gap in understanding real consumer experiences related to spending and savings, particularly at a community level. Drawing on more granular data analytics, such as transaction data from grocery purchases, could provide deeper insights into consumer behavior beyond traditional inflation metrics.
Demographic Trends and Labor Market Implications
The podcast touches upon significant demographic shifts affecting the U.S. labor market, notably the aging native population and its impact on economic dynamics. With the baby boomer generation retiring, the labor supply is facing pressures, heightening the importance of immigration to sustain job growth in the economy. Moreover, disparities in labor force participation rates highlight challenges for men and women, with women facing systemic barriers tied to family policies. Addressing these demographic trends is essential for forming effective economic interventions that support a healthy and balanced labor market.
Today, I spoke to Ernie Tedeschi, former Chief Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers (These days he’s Director of Economics at The Budget Lab).
Timestamps:
[00:00]“Fighting the last war” in stimulus packages
[00:23] What’s driving inflation
[11:59] The tools CEA economists have
[16:45] The tools CEA economists wish they had
[33:50] Are high interest rates driving low consumer sentiment?
[38:39] Why men are dropping out of the labor force
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub
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