Science Friday The Uncertain Science Behind What We Understand As ‘Truth’
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Aug 19, 2025 
Mathematician Adam Kucharski, author of 'Proof: The Art and Science of Certainty,' explores the evolving concept of truth from ancient philosophies to today's challenges. He discusses the impact of misinformation and AI on our understanding of truth and emphasizes the importance of navigating uncertainty in decision-making. Kucharski highlights the complex relationship between scientific evidence and political agendas, particularly during crises like COVID-19, revealing how these factors shape public perception and trust in science.
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Don’t Treat P-Values As Sacred
- The 5% statistical cutoff is an arbitrary convenience, not a universal truth.
- The appropriate certainty threshold should depend on cost, benefit, and ease of gathering more evidence.
CIA Example Of Vague Probability Words
- Sherman Kent found that analysts used vague words like 'probable' differently and avoided commitment.
- Humans often resist being pinned down by uncertainty, which complicates clear communication.
Useful Conclusions From Uncertain Data
- Even with big uncertainty you can still draw useful, directional conclusions.
- Knowing which 'side of the fence' you are on often suffices for policy action.
