The Daily Why Herd Immunity Is Slipping Away
May 7, 2021
Apoorva Mandavilli, a science and global health reporter for The New York Times, dives into the shifting landscape of herd immunity during the pandemic. She discusses the growing challenges of achieving necessary immunity levels due to widespread vaccine hesitancy and the emergence of new variants. Mandavilli highlights how these factors may lead the U.S. to live in a normalized state without herd immunity. The conversation also considers public health strategies and the necessity of vaccinating the most vulnerable to mitigate impacts.
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Herd Immunity Unlikely
- Herd immunity, initially presented as the pandemic's exit strategy, is now considered unlikely by many experts.
- This realization has been a gradual shift, influenced by emerging variants and vaccine hesitancy.
Shifting Herd Immunity Thresholds
- Early pandemic estimates placed herd immunity at 60-70%, later revised down to 45-50% based on infections and promising vaccine trials.
- The emergence of more contagious variants significantly increased the required percentage for herd immunity.
Variants Complicate Herd Immunity
- The emergence of variants, like the one from the UK, increased the herd immunity threshold to 80-95%.
- This higher threshold requires near-universal vaccination, a challenge given significant vaccine hesitancy.