Robert Pape, a political scientist from the University of Chicago and expert on political violence, dives into the alarming resurgence of violence both in the U.S. and globally. He highlights how domestic endorsement of political violence correlates with rising terrorism and discusses the implications of demographic shifts for political polarization. Pape also covers historical military interventions and their unintended consequences, questioning the effectiveness of air power in modern warfare, especially in the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The resurgence of political violence in the U.S. is linked to growing support for violent actions among segments of the population.
Global patterns of political violence mirror domestic trends, with demographic shifts fueling resistance and conflict across various regions.
Deep dives
The Rise of Political Violence in the United States
Recent trends indicate a significant increase in political violence across the United States, which is historically unprecedented compared to recent decades. Factors such as the January 6 Capitol attack and threats against political figures highlight a disturbing shift in the political landscape, where violent rhetoric has permeated daily discourse. Surveys conducted indicate that support for political violence has remained high among certain segments of the population, which can embolden individuals who might previously have acted without political motivation. Incidents of violence, such as assassination attempts and threats against officials, are alarmingly linked to public sentiment that perceives such actions as socially sanctioned.
Understanding Violent Populism
The concept of violent populism is characterized by the use of force to bolster political ideologies, and current sociopolitical dynamics suggest that this trend is likely to persist. As the U.S. transitions from a white majority to a more multiracial democracy, resistance from segments of the population is growing, resulting in heightened political tensions. This demographic shift is driving fears among certain groups, prompting them to support extreme measures, including the use of force, to maintain their political power. The growing divide is evident in survey results, where significant portions of both sides express justification for political violence, indicating an escalating cycle of hostility.
Global Patterns of Political Violence
The trends emerging in the United States regarding political violence are reflective of broader patterns occurring globally, particularly in regions undergoing demographic changes. Historical examples illustrate how invasions and heavy-handed tactics can inadvertently strengthen opposing factions, as seen with groups like Hezbollah and Hamas gaining popularity among local populations due to perceived aggression. Similar strategies being employed in current conflicts, such as in Gaza and Ukraine, reveal the counterproductive nature of civilian-targeted attacks in achieving strategic objectives, instead fostering further resistance. The intersection of social change, public sentiment, and political violence underscores a complex global landscape where political legitimacy is increasingly questioned and conflict emerges.
If there’s a thread that connects unsettling trends across domestic and international affairs today, it’s the return of forms of violence that we once thought were more or less obsolete. That’s true of the return of political violence in the United States. It’s also true of the ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Robert Pape is a political scientist at the University of Chicago and the founding director of the Chicago Project on Security & Threats. He has made a career of studying these types of violence—whether carried out by American extremists, by suicide bombers, or by Russian or Israeli fighter jets. In a series of pieces in Foreign Affairs, he explains why all of these phenomena are likely to endure—including, in the wake of the U.S. presidential election, with what he calls an era of violent populism here at home.
He spoke with Foreign Affairs editor Dan Kurtz-Phelan on October 30 about the resurgence of these forms of violence—and the consequences for the United States and the world.