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Rob Fawn from PGIM Fixed Income discusses navigating the new paradigm in leveraged finance. Topics include default rate predictions, special situation strategies, aggressive liability management in Europe, cooperation agreements, French restructuring processes, challenges in levered real estate, and successful deal sourcing in distressed markets.
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Quick takeaways
- 10% of the leverage finance market is distressed, presenting opportunities for strategies targeting these situations.
- Global default rates to rise by 1-2% due to unsustainable capital structures caused by higher interest rates.
Deep dives
Challenges in Leverage Finance Markets
A significant portion of the global leverage finance market, about 10%, is currently trading at stressed or distressed levels, presenting a substantial opportunity for strategies targeting these situations. As spreads tighten, defaults are increasing primarily due to the unsustainable capital structures caused by higher interest rates. This market segment poses challenges as only a few managers are equipped to handle the complexity, leading to dislocations and increased dispersion.
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