Bonds, Treasury Bonds [Ep. 115]

Oct 3, 2021

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PART 01: US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why?

PART 02: Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or dovish. Why? We offer five theories.

PART 03: Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage.

---------SPONSOR----------
Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things. Recent readings include thoughts from George Friedman, Lyn Alden, Daniel Oliver, Michael Pettis, the Bank for International Settlements

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----EP. 115a REFERENCES---
Finally The Taper Tantrum, Or What’s Wrong With August?: https://bit.ly/2XXJoRb
Maybe More Autumn Than Strictly August: https://bit.ly/3D01Ibt
Some Next Steps To Watch For Scarce Collateral: https://bit.ly/3l3xGxH

-----------WHO-------------
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, licensed to killustrate. Bass-y James-Bond-style podcast intro/outro is "The New Black" by Mary Riddle found at Epidemic Sound.