Dana discusses the decline in funding for self-driving vehicles with BloombergNEF's Andrew Grant. They cover Tesla's robotaxi launch, industry's use of lidar technology, and the levels of autonomy being pursued. The podcast delves into the challenges of investment in this capital-intensive sector and the trends shaping the transition to a lower-carbon economy.
Investment in autonomous vehicles has declined since 2019, with companies focusing on specific use cases over general concepts.
Automakers are prioritizing level two and level three self-driving systems for consumers to drive significant revenue streams.
Deep dives
Levels of Automation in Autonomous Vehicles
Autonomous vehicles have different levels of automation, classified from zero to five. At level zero and level one, there is no assisted driving or minimal assistance to the human driver. Moving to level two and three, more advanced driver assistance systems come into play, with the human driver still primarily in control. Level three allows for conditional automation where the vehicle can take over in specific conditions, like self-parking or controlled highway driving. Levels four and five represent highly and fully self-driving vehicles where the computer takes control, enabling passengers to engage in other activities.
Investment Trends in Autonomous Vehicles
Investment in autonomous vehicles peaked in 2019 at $75 billion over the past decade, with a noticeable decline in funding since then. Companies have shifted towards specific use cases for their technology rather than general self-driving concepts. Notable recent investments include Tesla's $10 billion for self-driving compute systems and funding rounds for companies like Applied Intuition and Wave.
Autonomous Vehicle Strategies of Automakers
Automakers are focusing on different autonomous driving strategies based on revenue potential. Traditional automakers are prioritizing level two and level three self-driving systems for consumers, aiming for significant revenue streams. Some are cooling on full self-driving ambitions to concentrate on connectivity services and immediate consumer technologies.
Integration of Autonomous Driving with Electric Vehicles
There is a strong correlation between autonomous driving and electric vehicles, with newer electric vehicles often incorporating advanced driver assistance systems. Robotaxis and self-driving testing have shown a high rate of electric vehicle adoption. The growing trend towards electrification aligns well with the integration of autonomous driving technologies.
Autonomous vehicles might be the cars of the future, but following a flurry of venture capital and private equity funding a decade ago, investment in this space has since tapped the brakes. Last year saw VC/PE fundraising fail to reach $4 billion for the first time since 2017. While green shoots have come in the form of Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch, in such a capital-intensive industry, which levels of autonomy are the rest of the field still betting on?
On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Intelligent Mobility, Andrew Grant. Together they discuss the recent drop in investment, advances in self-driving vehicle development, and Tesla’s continued resistance to following its peers in adopting laser-based sensor technology known as lidar.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF<GO> on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com