How will Hizbollah respond to Israel’s Lebanon onslaught?
Sep 26, 2024
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Kim Ghattas, an FT contributing editor based in Beirut, shares her insights on Israel’s intensified conflict with Hezbollah. She breaks down the fears gripping Lebanese citizens amid increasing bombardments. Ghattas explains Hezbollah's strategic restraint and the internal challenges Lebanon faces, including economic crises and public discontent. The episode also touches on Syria's position and the cautious responses from Gulf states, highlighting the urgent need for diplomatic solutions to prevent further escalation.
Hezbollah, despite significant losses and internal chaos, shows tactical restraint to avoid full-scale war with Israel.
Lebanon's fragmented political landscape and public discontent towards Hezbollah complicate efforts to achieve peace and stability amidst ongoing violence.
Deep dives
Escalation of Conflict in Lebanon
The recent escalation of violence in Lebanon has resulted in significant casualties, with Israeli bombing raids killing almost 600 people in a single day. The conflict intensified after Hamas's attacks on October 7th, leading Hezbollah to launch missile strikes into northern Israel. The situation has created a climate of fear and tension across Lebanon, with residents feeling vulnerable to strikes that could occur anywhere. Many express disbelief in the Israeli government's claims of targeting only Hezbollah, given the widespread destruction seen in Gaza.
Hezbollah's Tactical Restraint and Challenges
Hezbollah has shown a degree of tactical restraint despite suffering significant losses and internal chaos from Israeli operations, which have decimated its leadership. The group historically launched missiles into Israel but seemed hesitant to expand the conflict further, indicating a desire to avoid a full-scale war. However, recent missile technology advancements have indicated that Hezbollah is still capable of reaching key targets, causing concern in Israel. Although weakened, Hezbollah retains a large arsenal, and there are fears that its combatants may seek revenge for their leaders' deaths, which could exacerbate the conflict.
Internal Political Dynamics in Lebanon
Lebanon currently faces a deeply fragmented political landscape, exacerbated by a prolonged economic crisis and the absence of stable governance. The population has largely turned against Hezbollah, recognizing it has become entrenched in corruption and has failed to serve the national interest. Citizens are grappling with feelings of powerlessness, as attempts to oppose Hezbollah can lead to severe repercussions. The challenge remains for Lebanese leaders to negotiate an end to the violence while seeking assurances from Israel to respect their sovereignty in the face of ongoing aggression.
Gideon talks to Kim Ghattas, an FT contributing editor based in Beirut, about Israel’s decision to step up its war against Lebanon’s Hizbollah. How will the militant group and its allies respond, and can the war be contained? Clips: Sky News; The Guardian