The podcast explores the reasons behind high inflation, including the impact of the COVID recession, slow removal of stimulus measures, and supply-side issues. It also discusses the role of expectations and credibility in driving high inflation rates, the importance of establishing credibility with the financial sector, and factors contributing to high inflation with prospects for improvement.
The recent surge in inflation in advanced economies raises questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy and the mistakes made by policymakers.
Maintaining credibility is crucial for central banks to control inflation, and loss of credibility can result in an unfavorable Phillips curve, where efforts to stimulate the economy have limited impact on unemployment but a significant effect on inflation.
Deep dives
Factors Contributing to High Inflation
The podcast discusses the various factors that have contributed to the recent surge in inflation. It emphasizes the stability of inflation across advanced economies for the past 20 to 30 years, thanks to a combination of independent central banks and inflation targets. However, the recent deviation from this stability raises questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy and the mistakes made by policymakers. Shocks to the economy, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and issues with supply chains and labor supply, have amplified inflationary pressures. The podcast argues that central banks' slow response and failure to adjust monetary policy in a timely manner have contributed to the current high inflation.
The Role of Expectations and Credibility
Another key point discussed in the podcast is the role of expectations and credibility in driving inflation. While inflation expectations had been relatively well anchored around 2%, there were signs of de-anchoring even prior to the recent surge in inflation. The podcast emphasizes that in order to maintain stable inflation, central banks must establish and maintain credibility. Loss of credibility can result in an unfavorable Phillips curve, where efforts to stimulate the economy have a limited impact on unemployment but a significant effect on inflation. The podcast highlights that the recent increase in insurance prices against inflation and the steep Phillips curve indicate some loss of credibility, although recent actions by central banks are helping regain credibility.
The Neutral Rate of Interest and Its Role
The podcast discusses the concept of the neutral rate of interest, also known as R star, and its significance in setting monetary policy. R star is the interest rate that equilibrates investment and savings in the long run. The decline in R star over the past 20 years has influenced central banks' cautious approach to deflation, concerns about the effectiveness of monetary policy, and the need for aggregate demand stimulus. However, the podcast cautions against overcommitting to the lower R star view as other interest rates and investment forms may not exhibit the same decline. The COVID-19 pandemic, along with increased public debt and energy costs, may cause R stars to shift more rapidly than anticipated. The podcast argues that central banks should avoid being overly focused on fighting deflation and be prepared to address rising inflation as well.
Ricardo Reis tells Tim Phillips why many advanced economies ended up with inflation levels that we haven’t seen for a generation. Did policymakers make mistakes, or do we need to change the entire policy framework?
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