Wealthion - Be Financially Resilient Josh Young: Oil Is Totally Mispriced
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Dec 2, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Josh Young, Founder and CIO of Bison Interests, dives deep into the complexities of the oil market. He reveals why oil is severely mispriced despite rising demand, attributing it to low speculative positioning. Josh highlights the potential of a demand shock driven by geopolitical tensions, underlines China's likely underreported oil consumption, and discusses the implications of weakly enforced sanctions creating a shadow oil market. He also shares insights on investment opportunities in small-cap energy firms and the dynamics of Canadian oil production.
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OPEC's Transparency Push Hides Weak Spare Capacity
- OPEC is moving toward transparency to show spare capacity is minimal rather than abundant.
- Josh Young thinks this aims to avoid a future 1970s-style oil crisis by supporting higher, stable prices.
Futures Positioning, Not Demand, Keeps Oil Cheap
- Oil's low price is driven by historically low net speculative positioning in futures, not weak demand or excess physical supply.
- Young estimates over a billion 'paper barrels' have been sold into futures, keeping WTI around $60 instead of ~$80â$85 fair value.
Costco Fill-Up Snapshot
- Josh relates filling up at Costco in Houston and paying about $2.30 per gallon before cashback.
- He contrasts this with Canadian pump prices to illustrate tax and policy differences between countries.