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Regime Change Shapes Economy
- Global policymakers see a regime change in trade, immigration, and institutions, rather than just a near-term recession risk.
- This regime change also signals the end of US economic exceptionalism and a weakening dollar against other currencies.
Asia-US Trade Agreement Prospects
- India is closest to reaching a bilateral trade agreement with the US due to the more tractable tariff issues.
- Japan and Korea are next potential candidates, with auto tariffs and currency manipulation likely key negotiation points.
Tariff Uncertainty Weakens Earnings
- Corporate earnings revisions in Asia are trending down due to tariff uncertainty and weakening activity momentum.
- Investors focus on domestic demand markets with better political or trade deal prospects amid fatigue over tariff news volatility.