Trump vs the Bond Market: Who Blinks?

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of the new Trump administration speak to extended deficits and higher debt levels, bringing with them the prospect for a return of above-target inflation in the form of potential tariffs and reduced labor supply. Expectations for Federal Reserve activity are gyrating, with fewer rate cuts now expected. The tension between policy and markets has yet to break out into bond market vigilantism or sharply higher rate volatility. Whether that stasis lasts is another question. Marvin Loh, a senior strategist for State Street Global Markets focused on global rate markets, discusses the mix of these factors on the podcast this week.

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