At Any Rate
Global FX Macro Outlook: The buck doesn’t stop here
Nov 27, 2024
Join Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan, both Global FX Strategists at J.P. Morgan, as they delve into the future of the foreign exchange markets. They discuss the U.S. dollar's potential impact from trade issues and elections, while examining the Chinese Yuan's influence on Asia's economy. The forecast for 2025 highlights expected dollar strength and FX volatility. Arindam preps listeners on the complexities facing the Australian and New Zealand dollars, while James unpacks the resilience of Swiss and Scandinavian currencies amid shifting monetary policies.
35:05
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. dollar is anticipated to rise significantly due to upcoming elections and trade policies, affecting other currencies variably.
- China's Yuan may depreciate substantially due to trade conflicts and tariffs, potentially impacting neighboring Asian currencies differently based on their economic conditions.
Deep dives
Outlook for the U.S. Dollar in 2025
There is a strong outlook for the U.S. dollar, driven primarily by the anticipated effects of U.S. elections and trade policies. The potential implementation of tariffs and renewed trade conflicts could propel the dollar to new highs, particularly as these issues remain unpriced in the FX market. The impacts of these developments are expected to vary based on the economic composition of other currencies, especially those reliant on manufacturing. Countries more focused on manufacturing may face greater vulnerabilities in response to trade conflicts, impacting their currency's stability compared to those with service-oriented economies.
