Elections To Watch In 2025

Oct 9, 2025

Jacob Rubashkin, Deputy Editor at Inside Elections, shares his expertise on pivotal 2025 races. He discusses the tight governor’s race in New Jersey, where Democrat Mikie Sherrill faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli. In Virginia, he highlights the historical context and political dynamics shaping the governor's contest. Jacob also unpacks the significance of California's Prop 50 for House seats and raises concerns about recent GOP scandals influencing down-ballot races. Expect key insights on how these elections could impact the political landscape.

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INSIGHT

Coasts Drive The 2025 Big Races

The big contests in 2025 are NJ and VA gubernatorial/legislative races, NYC mayor, and California redistricting Prop 50.
These coastal races and the Prop 50 fight will drive national attention and major spending dynamics.

INSIGHT

Prop 50 Is A High-Stakes, Hard-To-Poll Fight

California's Prop 50 is already the third most expensive ballot measure in state history with huge spending.
Polling looks somewhat positive for Democrats, but such irregular races are hard to poll reliably.

INSIGHT

Virginia Follows A Predictable Midterm Pattern

Virginia's gubernatorial race follows a strong historical pattern of the president's party losing the next-year governor's race.
That trend and current dynamics make the Republican path narrow despite some local strengths.

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We are less than a month away from Election Day 2025 and today we have a primer on the key races to watch.

There are technically elections all over the country, in 32 states, including contests for school board, city council, sheriff and more, plus referenda of all kinds. But the real blockbuster races are the gubernatorial and legislative races in New Jersey and Virginia, the mayoral race in New York City, and the redistricting ballot initiative in California. Call it the revenge of the coasts!

The New York City race, as you might have heard, is a rematch between former governor Andrew Cuomo and state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, with perennial Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa along for the ride.

In New Jersey, Democrats are starting to get angsty as the governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli looks to be a single digit race, maybe even a low single digit race.

In Virginia, while the governor’s contest looks like an easier bet for Democrats than historically bluer New Jersey, that hasn’t stopped a spate of scandals from disrupting some of the down ballot statewide races.

And lastly, the California fight over redistricting – Prop 50 – is already the third most expensive ballot measure in state history, with $215 million in spending as of the first week of October. The polling looks somewhat positive for Democrats hoping to gerrymander the state, but polling in such an irregular race can be tricky.

With me to dive into all of this is deputy editor of Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin.