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20VC: Microsoft CTO on Where Value Accrues in an AI World | Why Scaling Laws are BS | An Evaluation of Deepseek and How We Underestimate the Chinese | The Future of Software Development and The Future of Agents with Kevin Scott

Mar 31, 2025

Kevin Scott, the CTO of Microsoft and former SVP of Engineering at LinkedIn, dives into the evolving landscape of AI. He challenges traditional scaling laws, arguing they are overrated. Scott discusses the future of synthetic data and AI agents, predicting substantial shifts in software development driven by AI. He also emphasizes the importance of leadership lessons from Microsoft’s Satya Nadella and examines how we may be underestimating China’s role in tech innovation. A thought-provoking look at where value truly lies in an AI-driven world!

45:08

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Episode guests

Kevin Scott

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Kevin Scott emphasizes that the traditional constraints of scaling in business are diminishing, allowing for the emergence of innovative, domain-specific AI solutions.

The podcast discusses the critical shift towards high-quality synthetic data and AI agents, which will revolutionize user interactions and product efficiency in software development.

Deep dives

The Current Era of Entrepreneurship

This is an opportune time for entrepreneurs due to the rapid advancements in technology and AI. The speaker emphasizes that traditional constraints of scaling are gradually lifting, enabling innovative business ideas to flourish without limits. As industries evolve, there will not be a single solution provider but numerous specialized 'agents' designed to cater to diverse needs across various domains. The emphasis is on the importance of product management being closely tied to domain expertise, signifying a shift toward more customized and knowledgeable solutions.

Intro

5min

Navigating Technological Uncertainty

6min

Exploring AI Scaling Laws

6min

Navigating the Future of Software Development

22min

Accelerating Access to Technology for Societal Good

2min

Harnessing Technology for Team Collaboration and Business Success

4min

Kevin Scott is the CTO of Microsoft, where he leads the company’s AI and technology strategy at global scale and played a pivotal role in Microsoft’s partnership with OpenAI. Prior to Microsoft, Kevin spent six years at Linkedin as SVP of Engineering. Kevin has also enjoyed advisory positions with Pinterest, Box, Code.org and more.

In Today’s Episode We Discuss:

04:10 Where is Enduring Value in a World of AI

10:53 Why Scaling Laws are BS

12:26 What is the Bottleneck Today: Data, Compute or Algorithms

15:38: In 10 Years Time: What % of Data Usage will be Synthetic

20:04 How Will AI Agents Evolve Over the Next Five Years

23:34: Deepseek Evalution: Do We Underestimate China

28:34 The Future of Software Development

31:53 The Thing That Most Excites Me in AI is Tech Debt

35:01 Leadership Lessons from Satya Nadella

41:13 Quickfire Round

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