Mark Leonard's World in 30 Minutes Will Trump bomb Iran?
Jan 16, 2026
Ellie Geranmayeh, the deputy director of ECFR’s Middle East and North Africa programme, shares her insights on the ongoing protests in Iran and the implications of potential U.S. military intervention. She discusses the harsh crackdown of the Iranian regime, the challenges in verifying events on the ground, and why Trump's mixed signals create uncertainty. Geranmayeh also considers Reza Pahlavi's rising profile in opposition and explores alternatives to military action, emphasizing diplomacy and internal dynamics in shaping Iran's future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Crackdown Likely Halted Protests
- The security apparatus executed a large-scale crackdown that appears to have quashed nationwide protests.
- Ellie Geranmayeh says high fatality counts and an internet blackout helped silence demonstrators.
Trump's Public Yo-Yo Signals Uncertainty
- Trump's erratic statements reflect internal White House debates and his preference to keep options open.
- Ellie warns this has created unpredictability about whether strikes will happen.
Two Competing US Arguments On Intervention
- Pro-intervention voices stress showmanship, fearing Trump will avoid appearing weak.
- Restrainers warn of getting bogged down and the regional escalation risks of strikes on Iran.