The United States and China are Locked in a New Cold War: A Debate with Dr. Michael Beckley and Dr. Arne Westad
Jan 3, 2024
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Debate on whether the US and China are in a new Cold War. Topics covered include the clash of interests and competition between the two countries, the ideological dimension of their relationship, the need for clarity in defining a Cold War, and the role of ideology and multipolarity in the international system.
The rivalry between the US and China is not driven by a global ideological struggle like the Cold War, but ideology still shapes their foreign policies.
The US-China rivalry encompasses economic competition, military rivalry, and a sustained conflict across all spectrums of statecraft, making it a protracted and zero-sum Cold War dynamic.
Differentiating between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people is crucial to avoid discrimination and targeting innocent individuals amidst the US-China conflict, and finding common ground in addressing poverty in Africa may foster cooperation and shared goals.
Deep dives
The Nature of Cold Wars
A Cold War is characterized by an enduring rivalry between two countries with a clash of vital interests and the use of coercive measures short of hot war. It is not simply a state of hostility, but a specific kind of conflict.
The Role of Ideology
While the current rivalry between the US and China is not driven by a global ideological struggle like the Cold War, ideology still plays a role. The clash between authoritarianism and liberalism shapes how each country sees the world and their foreign policies.
Multipolarity and Rivalry
The current rivalry between the US and China exists in a global context, with both countries having significant power and influence. While the world is not strictly multipolar, the US and China are head and shoulders above other countries. The rivalry is not constrained to a specific region, but extends to multiple domains of geopolitics.
The Need for Diplomacy and Guardrails
While diplomacy is important, existing differences in terms and objectives make finding common ground difficult. Both sides must consider compromise and limited arrangements based on their conflicting interests and long-term strategic goals.
Characterizing the Conflict as a Cold War
The speaker argues that the US-China relationship can be characterized as a Cold War due to its protracted and zero-sum nature across all spectrums of statecraft. This Cold War dynamic is not limited to a particular domain but encompasses economic competition, military rivalry, and a sustained rivalry. The speaker believes that this characterization is important for both diagnostic and strategic purposes, as it acknowledges the structural conflict of interest and allows for a more realistic approach to managing the relationship.
Addressing Asian Hate Crimes and Common Interests
The speaker expresses concern about Asian hate crimes and acknowledges the importance of avoiding discrimination against Asian Americans in the context of the US-China conflict. They emphasize the need to differentiate between the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people to prevent targeting innocent individuals. On the question of common interests, the speaker suggests that the possibility of a common mission to address poverty in Africa could serve as a potential area of cooperation between the US and China, which might alleviate the zero-sum game perception and advance shared goals for the betterment of humankind.
On Thursday, October 5, 2023, the China Power Project held its eighth annual conference. The conference consisted of five separate debates by leading experts each taking a side on core issues underpinning China’s power. We will be releasing each of these debates as their own podcast throughout the holiday season. We will be back with our regularly scheduled debates in Mid-January 2024.
For this debate, the proposition is “the United States and China are locked in a new cold war.” Arguing for this proposition is Dr. Michael Beckley, who is thedirector of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, an associate professor at Tufts University, and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Arguing against this proposition is Dr. Arne Westad, who is a professor at the Jackson School of Global Affairs at Yale University.
