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The market is expecting a Fed rate cut in March, although the speaker believes it may be too soon for that to happen. The market's anticipation of a rate cut in March is positioning itself accordingly.
The importance of being educated about local and national real estate market conditions is emphasized, as it can greatly benefit professionals in the industry, such as real estate agents, mortgage finance professionals, and advisors. Staying informed about market conditions allows professionals to better serve their clients and make more informed decisions.
The chief economist from realtor.com projects a lower number of home sales in 2024 due to the expectation of higher mortgage rates. The projection is based on the belief that higher mortgage rates make it more expensive for first-time buyers to enter the market and that homeowners with low rates would be less inclined to trade up. As a result, the projection is for around 4.1 million home sales in 2024, similar to the previous year.
The projection for a decrease in the inventory of existing homes is attributed to the expectation of slower sales activity resulting from higher mortgage rates and the phenomenon known as rate lock. Rate lock refers to homeowners staying in their homes rather than upgrading due to the cost of funds and higher mortgage payments. These factors contribute to a decrease in the overall inventory level.
Consumer expectations regarding mortgage rates are shifting, with an increasing number of consumers expecting rates to go down rather than up. This change in expectation may result in less buyer urgency in the market, as the pressure to buy before rates rise further diminishes. Additionally, the introduction of more affordable luxury markets, such as Detroit and parts of St. Louis, is changing the perception of affordability in the luxury housing segment.
Danielle Hale, Chief economist for Realtor.com, joins Tom Toole and Lisa Chinatti to discuss housing market predictions, wildcard factors in the U.S. election, what the Fed could do as well as what they're likely to do this year, identifying the best markets, consumer sentiment, and the impact of commission lawsuits.
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Resources:
https://twitter.com/SteveHarney/status/1743344414737490081?s=20
https://www.realtor.com/research/2024-national-housing-forecast/
https://www.realtor.com/research/top-housing-markets-2024/
https://www.realtor.com/research/first-time-homebuyer-markets-2024/
Timestamps:
00:00–02:50 Intro
01:12 Predictions: Home sales, inventory, & the 30-Year fixed
04:49 What do you think is going to lead in this market?
05:48 How important is it for agents to understand current trends?
07:42 Do you see a situation where homeownership stays steady?
14:33 Election: What do you see happening this year with wildcard factors?
18:00 What solutions can the FED make?
19:53 What are your predictions about the luxury market?
21:48 How do you identify different markets? First time homebuyer market?
26:37 What’s the best housing market? How do you determine?
28:05 As you see it, what are the things most likely to impact consumer confidence in 2024?
32:16 What do you think the Fed is going to do with rate cuts, etc. over the next 12 months?
34:41 Any prediction on change in consumer sentiment toward the market?
38:45 Steve Harney Tweet
39:12 What advice do you have for real estate agents right now?
42:22 What do you think about the commission lawsuits?
44:03 Danielle asks Tom and Lisa for their thoughts on the impact of commission lawsuits.
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Connect with Byron Lazine:
https://www.instagram.com/byronlazine
Connect with Tom Toole:
https://www.instagram.com/tomtoole3rd/
Connect with Lisa Chinatti:
https://www.instagram.com/lisachinatti/
Connect with Danielle Hale:
Danielle Hale’s website: http://realtor.com/research
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BAM delivers real estate news, education, and entertainment with nonstop original content from an unmatchable line-up of industry personalities and top producers.
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#2024predictions #federalreserve #housingmarketexpert
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