Macro Musings with David Beckworth cover image

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy

Jan 6, 2025
Marijn Bolhuis, an economist at the IMF, introduces the groundbreaking concept of fiscal R-star, reshaping our understanding of macroeconomic policy. He delves into the interplay between fiscal and monetary policies, particularly post-pandemic. Bolhuis explores consumer sentiment, revealing a gap between public perception and actual economic indicators, especially regarding inflation and borrowing costs. His insights highlight the nuanced dynamics that shape today’s economic environment and the challenges faced in maintaining fiscal discipline amidst changing political landscapes.
52:25

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The introduction of Fiscal R-Star highlights the importance of managing real interest rates to maintain a stable debt-to-GDP ratio for sustainable growth.
  • Tensions between fiscal and monetary policies have escalated since the pandemic, creating a significant fiscal monetary gap that threatens macroeconomic stability.

Deep dives

The Concept of Fiscal R-Star

The discussion introduces the concept of Fiscal R-Star, highlighting its distinction from traditional R-Star measures used in monetary policy. Fiscal R-Star refers to the real interest rate that stabilizes a country's debt-to-GDP ratio when the economy is growing at potential and inflation is targeted. This concept posits that if the actual real interest rate exceeds this fiscal ceiling, government debt can become explosive, indicating potential financial instability. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for policymakers as it underscores the need for maintaining sustainable fiscal practices amid rising debt levels.

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