Marijn Bolhuis on Fiscal R-star and its Implications for Macroeconomic Policy
Jan 6, 2025
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Marijn Bolhuis, an economist at the IMF, introduces the groundbreaking concept of fiscal R-star, reshaping our understanding of macroeconomic policy. He delves into the interplay between fiscal and monetary policies, particularly post-pandemic. Bolhuis explores consumer sentiment, revealing a gap between public perception and actual economic indicators, especially regarding inflation and borrowing costs. His insights highlight the nuanced dynamics that shape today’s economic environment and the challenges faced in maintaining fiscal discipline amidst changing political landscapes.
The introduction of Fiscal R-Star highlights the importance of managing real interest rates to maintain a stable debt-to-GDP ratio for sustainable growth.
Tensions between fiscal and monetary policies have escalated since the pandemic, creating a significant fiscal monetary gap that threatens macroeconomic stability.
Consumer sentiment remains depressed despite economic recovery due to rising borrowing costs, indicating a disconnect between traditional inflation measures and lived experiences.
Deep dives
The Concept of Fiscal R-Star
The discussion introduces the concept of Fiscal R-Star, highlighting its distinction from traditional R-Star measures used in monetary policy. Fiscal R-Star refers to the real interest rate that stabilizes a country's debt-to-GDP ratio when the economy is growing at potential and inflation is targeted. This concept posits that if the actual real interest rate exceeds this fiscal ceiling, government debt can become explosive, indicating potential financial instability. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for policymakers as it underscores the need for maintaining sustainable fiscal practices amid rising debt levels.
Tensions between Fiscal and Monetary Policy
The episode delves into the growing tensions between fiscal and monetary policies, particularly in advanced economies, during the post-pandemic recovery. Loose fiscal policies have been linked to rising inflation, while concurrent monetary tightening has increased the costs of government borrowing. Empirical evidence suggests the gap between Fiscal R-Star and traditional R-Star, termed the fiscal monetary gap, serves as a reliable indicator of tensions between these two policy realms. Notably, the current levels of this gap are the highest since World War II, raising concerns about potential macroeconomic instabilities.
Active Vs. Passive Fiscal Policy
The paper contrasts active and passive fiscal policies, defining active fiscal policy as one that is set independently of the government's debt state. In contrast, passive fiscal policy takes the existing debt levels into account to ensure sustainability. Historical examples illustrate that while active fiscal policies can sometimes coexist with stability, they often lead to adverse macroeconomic outcomes when not managed prudently. Central banks typically operate under the assumption of passive fiscal policy; therefore, shifts toward active policy can complicate monetary policy effectiveness.
Implications of the Fiscal Monetary Gap
This fiscal monetary gap has significant implications, including heightened inflation rates, currency devaluations, and increased risks of debt crises. Countries experiencing a larger gap may encounter negative macroeconomic outcomes as inflation expectations become unanchored. These risks are particularly concerning given the historical context of rising fiscal strains during times of economic crisis or political fragmentation. The evidence indicates that advanced economies are currently navigating a precarious balance, suggesting that immediate fiscal consolidation is necessary to avert potential crises.
Understanding How People Experience Inflation
Additionally, consumer sentiment is affected by the costs associated with borrowing, particularly as home prices and mortgage rates rise significantly. A study indicated that traditional price indices fail to account for these borrowing costs, leading to a disconnection between reported inflation rates and consumer experiences. By adjusting the measure of the cost of living to include these factors, a more comprehensive view of inflation's impact becomes apparent. This discrepancy sheds light on why consumer confidence may lag despite broader economic recovery, emphasizing the importance of aligning economic indicators with genuine public sentiment.
Marijn Bolhuis is an economist in the World Economic Studies Division of the IMF’s research department. In Marijn’s first appearance on the podcast he discusses his new paper, which introduces the idea of a fiscal r-star, and expands on another paper which helps economists understand why consumer sentiment is so depressed, despite relatively low unemployment and inflation coming back to target.
Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links.