Future of Life Institute Podcast

Katja Grace on the Largest Survey of AI Researchers

Mar 14, 2024

Katja Grace discusses AI researchers' beliefs, discontinuous progress, impacts of AI crossing human-level intelligence, intelligence explosions, and mitigating AI risk in the largest survey of AI researchers. Topics include AI arms races, slowing down AI development, and intelligence and power dynamics. Grace explores high hopes and dire concerns, AI scaling, and what AI learns from human culture.

01:08:00

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Katja Grace

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Quick takeaways

AI researchers' beliefs on AI risks are varied, emphasizing risks like false information dissemination and deepfakes.

The speed of AI progress impacts societal welfare, with differing opinions on optimal development pace.

Experts exhibit mixed views on intelligence explosion and AI scaling, highlighting the complexity of AI progress factors.

Deep dives

AI Impacts Surveys: Insights and Trends

The podcast discusses AI Impacts' recent surveys, highlighting a notable drop in estimated time to human level AI within one year between the 2022 and 2023 surveys. Experts' predictions on AI timelines have been changing rapidly, influenced by developments like GPT models. Although views shifted dramatically, there remain discrepancies in predictions about human extinction risk.

Insights on Survey Results in AI Research

01:07

Personal Reflections on AI Impact and Future Choices

01:46

Expert Timelines and Predictions on Automation Tasks

00:58

Introduction

2min

Analysis of AI Researchers' Survey Results and Estimations

2min

Expert Predictions and Survey Analysis on AI Advancements

15min

Exploring AI Behavior in Goal Achievement and Deception

3min

Perspectives on AI Extinction Risk and Progress Speed

12min

AI Risks: False Information and Deep Fakes Threats

8min

The Uncertainty of Intelligence Explosion in AI Development

8min

Unveiling the Impact of AI Progress

17min

Personal Reflections on AI Impact and Future Choices

2min

Katja Grace joins the podcast to discuss the largest survey of AI researchers conducted to date, AI researchers' beliefs about different AI risks, capabilities required for continued AI-related transformation, the idea of discontinuous progress, the impacts of AI from either side of the human-level intelligence threshold, intelligence and power, and her thoughts on how we can mitigate AI risk. Find more on Katja's work at https://aiimpacts.org/. Timestamps: 0:20 AI Impacts surveys 18:11 What AI will look like in 20 years 22:43 Experts’ extinction risk predictions 29:35 Opinions on slowing down AI development 31:25 AI “arms races” 34:00 AI risk areas with the most agreement 40:41 Do “high hopes and dire concerns” go hand-in-hand? 42:00 Intelligence explosions 45:37 Discontinuous progress 49:43 Impacts of AI crossing the human-level intelligence threshold 59:39 What does AI learn from human culture? 1:02:59 AI scaling 1:05:04 What should we do?

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Future of Life Institute Podcast

Katja Grace on the Largest Survey of AI Researchers

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

Deep dives

AI Impacts Surveys: Insights and Trends

Expert Opinions on AI Progress and Safety Concerns

Balancing AI Progress for Humanity's Benefit

Public Perception of AI

Scaling AI and AI's Impact on Humanity

Insights on Survey Results in AI Research

Personal Reflections on AI Impact and Future Choices

Expert Timelines and Predictions on Automation Tasks

Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts