The 30,000 Foot View from our Research Conferences
Nov 9, 2023
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The host discusses the outlook for macro and markets into 2024, including the increasing probability of a US recession and investors' shift to a more cautious approach. It explores the impact of falling inflation on investor behavior, the appeal of safe haven fixed income, and the potential outlook for currencies and equity markets. The chapter also includes a sponsor ad from State Street Bank and Trust Company.
Inflation is beginning to normalize in developed economies, with no particular sectors standing out with abnormal price stats.
There are increasing probabilities of a US recession in the next 12 months, attributed to the lag effects of past policy tightening.
Deep dives
Inflation is starting to normalize in developed economies
In the podcast episode, it is highlighted that inflation is beginning to normalize in most developed market economies. While it is not yet back to target, the data from price stats suggests that inflation is starting to become more normal. This is observed in US headline inflation, where the previous rise, largely attributed to fuel prices, is now normalizing. Sector-level data also indicates a picture of normality, with no particular sectors standing out with abnormal price stats. Overall, both headline and core goods inflation appear to be less of a problem, not only in the US but also in the Eurozone and the UK.
US recession probabilities have risen, indicating slower growth
The podcast discusses how recession probabilities from various models have receded for most developed economies. However, the podcast’s own model reveals increasing probabilities of a US recession, reaching around 85% in the next 12 months. This is attributed to the lag effects of past policy tightening, which continue to weigh on economic activity. Despite the US economy's resilience, there are signs of slower growth and higher recession risks. Bank lending surveys and credit availability indicate tightening lending conditions in the US and the Eurozone, which suggest the effects of past tightening policy are still ongoing.
Investor behavior indicates a shift towards safer assets
The podcast highlights a significant shift in investor behavior towards safer assets. Institutional investors have been moving out of riskier assets, such as equities, and increasing allocations to cash. This shift has become more pronounced in recent months as evidence of inflation normalization has emerged. Flows in global equities show a defensive bias, with stronger buying observed in utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples, while outflows are noted in financials, materials, and industrials. As a result, the podcast suggests that fixed income markets, particularly benchmark treasuries, have become more attractive, especially with the rising appeal of safe-haven fixed income amid falling inflation. Additionally, the podcast mentions that the US dollar is hard to love but hard to avoid, and suggests that any dips in the dollar may be worth buying against the Euro, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.
Our annual series of Research conferences around the world came to a close this week, with events across Europe. This week, Tim flies solo and gives a summary of the outlook for macro and markets for the remainder of this year into 2024, informed as ever by the message from our unique suite of indicators of institutional investor behaviour, risk and inflation.