Street Signals
The 30,000 Foot View from our Research Conferences
Nov 9, 2023
The host discusses the outlook for macro and markets into 2024, including the increasing probability of a US recession and investors' shift to a more cautious approach. It explores the impact of falling inflation on investor behavior, the appeal of safe haven fixed income, and the potential outlook for currencies and equity markets. The chapter also includes a sponsor ad from State Street Bank and Trust Company.
13:34
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Quick takeaways
- Inflation is beginning to normalize in developed economies, with no particular sectors standing out with abnormal price stats.
- There are increasing probabilities of a US recession in the next 12 months, attributed to the lag effects of past policy tightening.
Deep dives
Inflation is starting to normalize in developed economies
In the podcast episode, it is highlighted that inflation is beginning to normalize in most developed market economies. While it is not yet back to target, the data from price stats suggests that inflation is starting to become more normal. This is observed in US headline inflation, where the previous rise, largely attributed to fuel prices, is now normalizing. Sector-level data also indicates a picture of normality, with no particular sectors standing out with abnormal price stats. Overall, both headline and core goods inflation appear to be less of a problem, not only in the US but also in the Eurozone and the UK.
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