Barron's Advisor Robert D. Kaplan: How to Invest Wisely in an Age of Permanent Crisis
Jul 1, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Robert D. Kaplan, a best-selling author and expert in foreign affairs, shares insights on the crucial intersection of geopolitics and investing. He emphasizes how rising tensions between the U.S. and China influence financial markets and the importance of recognizing global events in investment strategies. Kaplan also analyzes the transformative role of media in politics, the variances in global economic growth, and the need for a pessimistic outlook to better prepare for future crises. His expertise offers a thoughtful perspective on navigating an increasingly unstable world.
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Western Pacific Conflict Risks Markets
- Many geopolitical events are already priced into markets, reducing their direct impact.
- A high-level conflict in the Western Pacific, especially involving China and the US, would hugely disrupt markets and portfolios.
Fear Maintains Pacific Peace
- The chance of a high-end US-China war in the Western Pacific is about 5%.
- Fear of economic destruction ironically helps maintain peace between these powers.
Nonlinear Events Shape Future
- Forecasting often errs by assuming current trends continue linearly.
- Nonlinear shifts, like an unexpected Iranian revolution or death of key world leaders, could rapidly reshape geopolitics.
