Investing Insights

Here’s What Your Retirement Spending Rate Should Be in 2026

24 snips
Dec 5, 2025
Christine Benz, Director of Personal Finance and Retirement Planning at Morningstar, shares valuable insights on retirement spending strategies. She discusses the 3.9% safe withdrawal rate for 2026, revealing myths about the 4% rule. Christine emphasizes the need for flexibility in withdrawal strategies, which can potentially increase starting rates up to 6%. She also explores how delaying Social Security and using modest annuities can enhance retirees' income while navigating market challenges. Ultimately, she encourages adapting strategies to boost retirement living standards.
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INSIGHT

2026 Base Case Withdrawal Rate

  • Morningstar's 2026 base-case safe starting withdrawal rate is 3.9% for a 30-year horizon with 90% success probability.
  • That equals $39,000 annually on a $1,000,000 portfolio and is then inflation-adjusted each year.
INSIGHT

Fixed Real Withdrawals Mirror 4% Rule

  • The Morningstar base case mirrors the logic of the classic 4% rule: start with a fixed real withdrawal and inflation-adjust annually.
  • That method prioritizes predictability over portfolio-responsive spending.
ADVICE

Use The Research As A Temperature Check

  • Use the research as a temperature check if you're already retired and as a planning tool if you're starting retirement.
  • Explore trade-offs: predictability (rigid withdrawals) vs. higher lifetime spending (flexible strategies).
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