JF 4000: Inflation Watch, Fed Dilemma, and Recession Risk with John Chang

On this episode of The Horizon, John discusses June inflation data, why tariff impacts haven’t fully appeared in CPI yet, and how companies signal they’ll pass more costs to consumers. He breaks down a weakening labor market, the Fed’s dual mandate, and Wall Street’s high odds of near‑term rate cuts—while warning that cutting into oncoming tariff-driven inflation could force a policy U‑turn. John explores CRE implications across property types (apartments, retail, industrial, office), the role of the 10‑year Treasury, and how uncertainty—not just rates—is throttling hiring and investment. He closes with a medium‑term outlook: transaction velocity likely rises into 2025–26 as dry powder deploys, with localized cap rate compression despite policy opacity.

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