In this discussion, Chris Miller, an associate professor at Tufts University and expert on the geopolitics of technology, dives into the intense chip wars between the US and China. He highlights government investments focused on onshoring semiconductor production to bolster national security. The conversation also explores the critical role Taiwan plays in the global supply chain and its implications for AI advancements. Furthermore, they discuss how upcoming elections could reshape semiconductor policy and the push for transparency in supply chains amidst geopolitical tensions.
The competitive dynamics of the chip industry are shifting as the US faces challenges from China's aggressive self-sufficiency policies in semiconductor production.
Concerns regarding national security and military reliance on advanced chip technology are driving US initiatives like the CHIPS Act to boost domestic manufacturing.
Deep dives
The Current State of the Chip War
The competitive landscape in the chip industry has shifted significantly in the past five years, with the United States experiencing a decline from a perceived strength of eight to a current rating of six. This decrease is attributed to China's aggressive government policies aimed at making the country self-sufficient in high-end chips. The supply chain, heavily reliant on Taiwan for advanced chip production, adds complexity to this competition, as an effective international supply network is now pitted against increasing domestic capabilities in China. The competition primarily hinges on the historical Western supply chain's advantage versus China's rapid technological advancements.
Concerns of the US Military
The primary concerns for the US military regarding the chip supply chain focus on accessing high-end chips and their use in AI systems. Currently, a significant portion of advanced chips is produced in Taiwan, raising fears that conflicts in the region could disrupt access to these critical resources. The military recognizes that the quality of AI systems directly correlates with the quality of chips, which impacts not only economic stability but also national security. As nations scramble to secure high-end chips for defense applications, the implications of compromised access grow increasingly alarming.
China's Strategies in Chip Production
China has implemented two main strategies to bolster its chip production capabilities: extensive government financial support and a push for local companies to prioritize domestic chips. The government has established national investment funds to fuel the growth of the semiconductor industry, enabling firms to build more advanced facilities. Additionally, pressure on manufacturers to source chips locally illustrates a dual approach of enhancing supply while reducing dependence on international imports. While China has made strides in chip production, the challenge remains in achieving full technological competitiveness against established leaders.
US Policy Responses and the Future
In response to the challenges posed by China in the chip industry, the US has enacted policies such as the CHIPS Act, which aims to incentivize domestic production of semiconductors. While this act primarily addresses the diversification of the supply chain, it highlights ongoing concerns regarding reliance on Taiwan and potential vulnerabilities in product sourcing. Furthermore, export controls have been introduced to limit China's access to advanced chip-making technology, but their effectiveness is questioned as China adapts by utilizing lower-end tools for production. The future of this chip race will likely depend on continued investment in domestic manufacturing while navigating the complexities of international supply chain dynamics.
Computer chips power toys and control nuclear reactors. They are in phones, cars and planes, getting us to work and keeping us safe. And they are at the centre of a growing tech war between the US and China, with many other players. Governments around the world are throwing money at industry and erecting barriers to trade, trying desperately to onshore a multitrillion-dollar global industry. This week Soumaya discusses the geopolitics of chips with Chris Miller, associate professor at Tufts University and author of Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology.
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Soumaya Keynes writes a column each week for the Financial Times. You can find it here