UBS On-Air: Market Moves Signal over Noise with Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi
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Nov 24, 2025 Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi dives into the market's shift towards cash flows, highlighting signals from tech giants like NVIDIA and Meta. She discusses concerns over AI firms' financial struggles and potential monetization strategies, warning about price elasticity risks. With a focus on high-ROI areas for AI deployment, she points to healthcare and U.S. financials as key opportunities. A macro update reveals insights on the Fed's rate outlook and the importance of upcoming payroll data in shaping market movements.
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AI Shift: From CapEx To Cash Flows
- The AI narrative has shifted from capex to cash flows as investors demand monetization evidence.
- Companies must show how AI will generate sustainable cash to justify huge compute investments.
Market Reactions Tell A Story
- Ulrike cites market reactions: Meta cut guidance yet fell 21%, Nvidia down nearly 7% despite a historic quarter.
- SoftBank's 11% OpenAI stake and 25% share decline illustrate investor concern about private AI losses.
Private Losses Versus Public Winners
- Private AI firms are burning cash and relying on fundraising while monetization paths remain uncertain.
- The big winners (AI7) have captured $10 trillion in value but AI users haven't seen similar valuation gains.