Is China's demography China's destiny? A chat with former World Bank economist Bert Hofman

When the National Bureau of Statistics recently revealed that China's population had shrunk in 2022 for the first time in 60 years, conventional wisdom predicted that China was headed for catastrophe, as its workforce shrank, its pension coffers dried up, and its healthcare system grew overtaxed. Not so fast, says Bert Hofman, who spent 22 years in Asia with the World Bank, focused chiefly on China. Now a professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Government at the National University of Singapore, Bert offers a deeply-informed take on the challenges China does face — and how it might address them without suffering economic stagnation.

4:24 – Why population decline isn’t necessarily bad

5:55 – Why are low birth rates a challenge for China?

7:49 – How China can offset the “demographic tax” of population decline

13:40 – Is declining investment such a bad thing for China?

18:27 – Common prosperity and the pension system

23:45 – Challenges and solutions for healthcare reform

27:41 – The logic of beginning with fiscal reform

33:18 – The shortfalls of focusing on raising fertility rates

38:06 – What can China learn from other countries?

A complete transcript of this podcast is available at TheChinaProject.com

Recommendations:

Bert: China Reconnects by Wang Gungwu; The Last of Us on HBO Max

Kaiser: Great Circle by Maggie Shipstead

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