HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami: The Fed Empire strikes back
Jul 31, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst and expert in housing market dynamics and Federal Reserve policies, joins to discuss the latest Fed meeting. He dives into the surprising 3% GDP growth and its implications, while dissecting the complexities of job creation and unemployment. The conversation highlights how recent employment data influences Fed decision-making, particularly affecting housing policies. Mohtashami also assesses potential shifts in the Fed's leadership and the impact on future housing conditions amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
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GDP Growth Quality Concerns
- GDP growth beat headline estimates but quality issues exist in real final sales data.
- The Fed's confidence in GDP figures is fading as tariff impacts add uncertainty.
Powell Shifts Unemployment Metric
- Powell uses lower labor supply due to slowed immigration to justify low unemployment.
- He overlooks slowing private payroll growth, creating uncertainty about labor market health.
Mortgage Spreads Improve Rates Outlook
- Mortgage spreads improved despite rising 10-year yields, easing mortgage rates temporarily.
- Improved spreads mitigate the impact of higher bond yields on housing finance costs.