Know Your Risk Podcast

Capital Controls & the Dollar's Worst 1st Half in 50 Years

Jun 12, 2025
The podcast dives into the dollar's alarming performance during the first half of the year, marking its worst since 1974. It discusses the implications of recent jobless claims and looming economic challenges in the labor market. The complexities of taxing foreign entities and the need for clear legislation are explored, alongside the potential resurgence of capital controls. The dynamics of U.S.-China trade relations are examined, highlighting the vulnerabilities of the Treasury market and the impact of tariffs on economic interdependence.
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INSIGHT

Dollar's Historic Weakness Impact

  • The dollar's worst first half of a year in 51 years signals significant currency weakness.
  • This dollar weakness could boost tech earnings but might introduce modest imported inflation risks.
INSIGHT

Labor Market Weakening Signs

  • Rising continuing jobless claims indicate a weakening labor market.
  • This labor trend aligns with recent economic data and tax income reports.
INSIGHT

Section 899 as Capital Control

  • Section 899 imposes taxes on foreign companies from countries with 'unfair' tax policies targeting Americans.
  • This represents a soft form of capital control amid a growing global capital war trend.
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