Episode #36: Founder Optimism, Seed Math Is Broken, Aumni Venture Beacon Report

In this week’s episode of The Learning Corner, recorded in person during Precursor’s team onsite in San Francisco, Mia Farnham and Charles Hudson dive into the following topics: Embracing Optimism in Venture Inspired by a recent essay from Collin and Joshua Wallace, we explore the often-overlooked value of modeling best-case scenarios. While founders and investors are trained to anticipate risk, we ask: what would it look like to plan with optimism, and why is that mindset essential to long-term success? Bill Gurley on the Broken Math of Seed We break down Hadley Harris’ viral thread and Bill Gurley’s response on how price does matter in seed investing and how it could become more difficult to win back ownership in follow on strategy. Aumni’s Q1 2025 Venture Beacon Report With deal sizes compressing and investor protections rising, we examine the broader recalibration of the venture market. (0:12) Introduction and episode overview (0:43) Balancing risk management with positive visualization and modeling radical success scenarios (2:23) The reality of pre-seed investments and Caper acquisition by Instacart (3:50) The role of optimism in investment decisions and the unpredictability of acquisition paths (7:01) Evaluating AI startups and insights on seed investing math (10:08) Multi-stage funds and the impact of mega fund seed programs on valuations (13:07) IPOs as down rounds and key themes from Omni's Q1 2025 Venture Beacon (15:18) Supporting non-series A ready companies and the reality of current graduation rates (21:00) Interview with Jane Doe from XYZ Ventures (28:50) How to approach pivoting your startup (34:20) The role of mentorship in early-stage startups (40:10) Listener questions and answers (47:45) Closing remarks and upcoming episode preview (49:00) Sponsor message from ABC Corporation