In this special edition of Big Take DC, Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway discuss the reliability of data used by the Federal Reserve in decision-making. They interview ex-Fed economist Claudia Sahm to highlight concerns about flawed data and declining response rates in surveys. The podcast explores the impact of low response rates on data quality and the importance of rebuilding trust between the government and the people for accurate decision-making.
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Quick takeaways
The reliance of the Federal Reserve on potentially flawed labor market data raises concerns about the accuracy of policy decisions.
Declining response rates to government surveys can lead to flawed assumptions and incomplete understanding of the economy, impacting both policymaking and public perception.
Deep dives
The Limitations of Data in Guiding the Federal Reserve's Decisions
The podcast episode explores the reliance of the Federal Reserve on data to make decisions regarding interest rates and inflation. It discusses how the labor market data, specifically from the job openings in labor turnover survey (JOLTS), may have been flawed due to changes in job listing practices during the pandemic. The decline in survey responses overall also raises concerns about the accuracy and representativeness of the data used by policymakers. The episode emphasizes the significance of ensuring the reliability of data in order to make informed policy decisions.
Distrust in Government Surveys and the Risk of Flawed Data
The podcast delves into the growing mistrust in government surveys and the impact it has on the quality of data. It highlights how declining response rates to surveys, influenced by concerns about privacy and the perceived risks of sharing personal information, can lead to flawed assumptions and incomplete understanding of the economy. This decline in survey responses not only affects the decisions of the Federal Reserve, but also influences narratives constructed by economists and shapes public perception about the state of the economy, especially during election years.
Navigating Uncertainty and the Complexity of Economic Data
The podcast acknowledges the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in interpreting economic data accurately amidst an environment of uncertainty. It discusses the various narratives that can be constructed based on the available data, highlighting the difficulty in determining a clear picture of the economy. The episode emphasizes the need for policymakers to consider a broader range of data sources, such as administrative data, to bridge the gap between traditional survey data and hard economic indicators. It also underscores the importance of restoring trust in government surveys to ensure more reliable and representative data.
Today's episode is a special edition of Bloomberg's Big Take DC podcast, featuring an interview with our own Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. They spoke to Big Take host Saleha Mohsin of Bloomberg News, about how the US has managed to avoid a recession — and whether the Federal Reserve’s decisions were based on reliable data. It also features an interview with Claudia Sahm, an ex-Fed economist and contributor to Bloomberg Opinion. To hear more from Big Take DC, subscribe to their show.