Is Trump's Victory A Win For China? Ep185: Professor Qi Ye
Nov 13, 2024
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In this discussion, Professor Qi Ye, Director of Public Policy at Hong Kong University, reveals insights on China's rapid clean energy transition and its implications for global policies. He explores whether China's lead in clean technologies is unassailable and discusses the surge of electric vehicles, which now dominate sales. The conversation also highlights the complex dynamics between China and the West regarding clean energy collaborations and the geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. presidential election on climate initiatives.
China's rapid shift towards a clean energy economy demonstrates its significant investments in renewable technologies, positioning it as a leader in global clean energy markets.
Adopting a risk assessment framework for climate change encourages proactive policymaking that prepares for low-probability, high-impact events affecting global temperatures.
Deep dives
China's Rapid Energy Transition
China has experienced a significant transformation in its energy landscape, driven by a variety of investments in renewable technologies such as solar, wind, and nuclear power. This shift has contributed to a decrease in the carbon intensity of its energy grid, alongside a notable increase in the share of electricity generated within its total energy consumption. As a consequence, China is expected to peak its greenhouse gas emissions from energy in the near future, indicating a more sustainable trajectory. The country now holds a substantial position within the global market, accounting for 20% of EV exports in 2023, showcasing its vital role in the worldwide clean energy movement.
Risk Management in Climate Policy
Shifting perspectives toward climate change management reveals the importance of risk assessment over merely evaluating average scenarios. By adopting a risk framework, policymakers can acknowledge and prepare for low-probability but high-impact events that may arise from climate change. This proactive approach prompts a reconsideration of existing policies while emphasizing the potential damages and losses associated with a rise in global temperatures. The potential implications of climate risk necessitate a critical evaluation of policies, pushing for measures that prioritize resilience and adaptation.
Competition vs. Collaboration in Clean Energy
The discussion surrounding China's advancements in clean energy often highlights a tension between competition and collaboration on the global stage. While some Western nations impose tariffs on Chinese technological imports to protect local industries, there are untapped opportunities for mutual collaboration. As clean technologies evolve, both China and other nations can benefit from partnerships that foster energy independence and shared innovation. The key to navigating this competitive landscape is creating frameworks that encourage positive competition aimed at enhancing clean energy solutions.
International Climate Governance Challenges
The current international climate governance system faces criticism for its effectiveness in achieving global temperature goals, with many experts arguing that existing frameworks have fallen short. Despite significant progress made since establishing the Paris Agreement, nations are further away from targets needed to limit temperature rise. Many believe that the focus should shift toward more sector-based approaches or alternative agreements to better facilitate actual progress against climate change. The involvement of younger generations in climate negotiations is also essential, as their fresh perspectives can invigorate governance efforts and tackle pressing environmental issues.
Is China's lead in clean technologies insurmountable? How will the Trump presidency shape relations with China? And when will China's emissions peak?
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has said that 'almost every energy story is essentially a China story. But it's a complicated story that has been powered by vast supplies of coal. China's economy has grown rapidly, with per capita levels of energy consumption now matching Europe's, making it the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gasses.
At the same time, China has increased the share of electricity and total energy to around 28% thanks to a rapid uptake of electric vehicles and increasing use of electricity for heating domestically. If it continues on its current trajectory, it is likely to peak its greenhouse gas emissions from energy in the next few years, if it hasn't done so already. China is also playing an increasing role beyond its borders: In 2023, 20% of the global EV export market belong to China, and it dominates the battery, solar and wind industries.
This week on Cleaning Up, Bryony Worthington sits down with Professor Qi Ye, Director of Public Policy at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, who's had a ringside seat during China's rapid shift towards a clean energy economy. Together they unpack the complex dynamics shaping the global energy transition in China. Discover the remarkable scale and pace of China's clean energy transformation, the challenges of international collaboration, and Professor Qi's vision for a new era of climate leadership.
Leadership Circle:
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