More or Less The Stats of the Nation: The Economy
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Jan 5, 2026 
Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation, shares insights on the ongoing impact of the cost-of-living crisis, highlighting how energy shocks and inflation have affected low-income households. Helen Miller, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, discusses modest economic growth projections and the strain on public services, despite record tax receipts. Meanwhile, Mairi Spowage, an expert on Scottish tax policy, explains how Scotland's tax system benefits lower earners while analyzing the behavior of taxpayers in response to higher tax rates.
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Cost-Of-Living Crisis Leaves Lasting Scars
- The cost-of-living crisis was concentrated in late 2021 to mid-2023 but its effects persist through higher price levels.
- Ruth Curtice notes lower-income families still spend substantially more on essentials than before the Ukraine invasion.
Weak Jobs Market From Hiring Slowdown
- Labour market weakness is driven more by reduced hiring than mass firing, hitting retail and hospitality.
- Ruth Curtice finds young people particularly affected because lower-paid roles are hiring less.
Small Growth Differences Multiply
- Small differences in growth rates compound hugely over time and matter a lot for living standards.
- Helen Miller illustrates that a 1% vs 2% growth gap becomes a 50% difference over 30 years.