Is Ukraine running out of time? Former US ambassador Ivo Daalder sizes up the Russia-Ukraine war
May 25, 2024
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Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder discusses the critical delays in US support for Ukraine, impacting the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Highlighting the battlefield mismatch, he emphasizes the importance of timely assistance for Ukraine's defense. The episode explores China's support for Russia, Estonia's concerns, and the complexities of NATO's role in the conflict. It also delves into the potential impact of US elections on negotiations and conflict resolution.
US delay in military aid weakened Ukraine's defenses, allowing Russia to gain territory.
Russian morale appears stronger than Ukrainian morale, impacting conflict outcomes and intensifying crisis.
Deep dives
Russian Advancements and Ukrainian Challenges
Russian troops have recently gained territory in Ukraine, closing in on Harkiv. The delay in U.S. military aid allowed Moscow to rearm, regroup, and increase its momentum. Ukrainian forces face challenges in manpower, ammunition, and air defense systems. The situation is deteriorating as seen with President Zelensky canceling international trips to focus on the Russian offensive.
Morale and Strategic Decisions
Despite facing challenges, Russian morale appears better than Ukrainian morale as they show better results and momentum in recent weeks. The conflict's intensity and increasing territory losses impact morale on both sides. The urgency for strategic decisions and substantial support is highlighted to address the escalating crisis.
Critical Summit Decisions and Potential Endgame
The upcoming NATO summit in July is crucial in addressing the Ukrainian conflict. The need for rapid decisions to prevent further escalation is emphasized. Discussions center around the risk of greater escalation and the necessity of recalibrating strategies to support Ukraine effectively. The potential end of the war may lead to a ceasefire with unresolved territorial disputes, resembling conflicts like Syria and Israel.
Could the last six months be the most pivotal months of the entire Russia-Ukraine war? Over two years into the conflict, Russia is closer to victory in Ukraine than ever before, according to former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder. He joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World Podcast from Tallinn, Estonia, mere miles from the Russian border.
How much is this battlefield mismatch due to a delay in US support? A big part of it, says Daalder. “Congress refusing to act on the requests that the president first made back in July…and nothing happening until mid-April” was a major blow to Ukraine’s defenses, Daalder says. “And now it just takes time to get stuff to the Front and get it across the border and to the units in the quantities to make it happen.”