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Animal Spirits Podcast

Talk Your Book: High Prices Cure High Prices

Dec 4, 2023
The podcast discusses the golden grain cycle, the cost of production and expected returns for commodities, the oil market, and the impact of the US dollar on the commodity market.
34:48

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Agricultural commodities trade at the cost of production during normal market conditions, making them more suitable for tactical trading rather than long-term strategies.
  • Commodities, including agricultural ones, follow cyclical patterns and should be approached with a realistic understanding of their market dynamics.

Deep dives

Agricultural commodities and the concept of cyclical patterns

Agricultural commodities, like corn, soybeans, and wheat, tend to trade at the cost of production during normal market conditions due to government subsidies and steady demand. Supply disruptions, such as extreme weather or wars, can cause prices to spike temporarily, but they eventually return to the cost of production. This cyclical nature of agricultural commodities makes them more suited for tactical trading rather than long-term buy-and-hold strategies.

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