Conversations: Credit Picker’s Market with Wayne Dahl, Robert O’Leary, and Mark Jacobs
Oct 5, 2023
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Wayne Dahl, Robert O’Leary, and Mark Jacobs discuss credit investor strategies in a volatile interest rate environment, attractive sectors for opportunistic credit investors, misconceptions about the commercial real estate market, and the opportunity to buy high-quality assets at discounted prices.
Despite the volatile interest rate environment, high-yield bonds have performed well and outperformed, with credit spreads compressing to offset the impact of rising interest rates.
Opportunistic credit presents opportunities as liquidity deteriorates and a significant maturity wall approaches, emphasizing the need for credit selection and dynamic asset allocation to navigate default rates and impairments.
Deep dives
Insights on the Volatile Interest Rate Environment
The podcast discusses the recent shifts in the yield curve and how it reflects investor expectations. The market has experienced wild swings in short interest rates throughout the year, making it challenging to forecast interest rates and inflation. The market now expects interest rates to be higher for longer, leading to a slow shift higher throughout the year. Despite the volatile interest rate environment, high-yield bonds have performed well and outperformed. Credit spreads have compressed, offsetting the impact of rising interest rates.
Opportunistic Credit Landscape
The podcast explores the opportunities and changes in the opportunistic credit landscape. Opportunistic credit arises when companies are unable to access syndicated financing due to limitations in their business models or financials. With liquidity deteriorating and a significant maturity wall approaching in 2025-2026, borrowers are eager to refinance and strengthen their balance sheets. Companies with floating rate debt and industries facing secular issues are particularly vulnerable. Default rates and impairments are expected to increase, highlighting the need for credit selection and dynamic asset allocation.
Bright Spot in the Industrial Real Estate Sector
The podcast highlights the outperformance of the industrial real estate sector due to strong supply-demand fundamentals. The increase in e-commerce sales, retooling of the global supply chain, and a growing economy have driven the demand for industrial space. While supply has increased, it hasn't kept pace with demand, leading to historical rent growth. However, there is a potential for divergence in the sector, with demand moderating outside coastal markets and increased supply in the middle part of the country. It emphasizes the importance of avoiding losers and seeking opportunities in core assets and core markets with downside protection.
How have credit investors been successfully navigating the volatile interest rate environment? Which sectors currently look attractive to opportunistic credit investors? What are some of the major misconceptions about today’s commercial real estate market? In this episode of The Insight: Conversations, Wayne Dahl (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Robert O’Leary (Portfolio Manager, Global Opportunities), and Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income) discuss topics from the September edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree’s Quarterly Letters (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-september-2023-edition) and explain what it means to be in a credit picker’s market.
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