#136 – Will MacAskill on what we owe the future

7 snips

Aug 15, 2022

Join Will MacAskill, an Oxford philosopher and co-founder of the effective altruism movement, as he explores the importance of our ethical responsibilities towards future generations. He argues that longtermism—a focus on the far future—is vital for addressing existential risks like pandemics and AI. MacAskill dives into how our decisions today can have immense impacts on tomorrow's humanity, urging listeners to engage in long-term thinking about climate change, energy transition, and the moral implications of advanced technology.

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ANECDOTE

Introduction

Will MacAskill discusses his new book, What We Owe the Future, focusing on longtermism.
MacAskill, a philosophy professor and EA co-founder, explores humanity's future.

INSIGHT

Longtermism Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on various longtermist aspects.
Topics include influencing future generations, evaluating potential futures, and value persistence.

INSIGHT

Longtermism Defined

Longtermism prioritizes positively influencing the long-term future.
It emphasizes the vastness of the future and its moral significance.

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Catastrophe: Risk and Response

Richard Posner

In 'Catastrophe: Risk and Response', Richard Posner explores four significant risks that could potentially end advanced human civilization: asteroid impacts, catastrophic chain reactions in particle accelerators, global climate change, and bioterrorism. He argues that these risks warrant more attention and proposes using a cost-benefit analysis framework to assess and respond to them. The book highlights the need for a more serious examination of these risks and suggests that current responses are inadequate.

The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth

Benjamin M. Friedman

In this book, Benjamin M. Friedman examines the political and social histories of large Western democracies, particularly the United States since the Civil War, to demonstrate that rising incomes lead to more open and democratic societies. He argues that economic growth, rather than just a high standard of living, is crucial for political and social liberalization. Friedman also highlights that economic stagnation puts democratic values at risk, even in wealthy nations. The book includes concrete policy suggestions for pursuing growth and promoting worldwide economic expansion, emphasizing the moral consequences of economic decisions and their impact on human happiness and societal well-being[2][3][4].

What We Owe the Future

William MacAskill

In this book, William MacAskill advocates for longtermism, the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority. He argues that future people count, there could be many of them, and we can make their lives better. MacAskill discusses various threats to humanity, including climate change, AI misalignment, and pandemics, and proposes strategies to ensure civilization's survival and improve its trajectory. The book explores moral and philosophical issues surrounding longtermism, including the risks of human extinction, civilizational collapse, and technological stagnation, while offering a measured optimism about the future's potential for human flourishing[1][5][4].

The Precipice

Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

Toby Ord

In this book, Toby Ord argues that humanity is in a uniquely dangerous period, which he terms 'the Precipice,' beginning with the first atomic bomb test in 1945. Ord examines various existential risks, including natural and anthropogenic threats, and estimates that there is a one in six chance of humanity suffering an existential catastrophe within the next 100 years. He advocates for a major reorientation in how we see the world and our role in it, emphasizing the need for collective action to minimize these risks and ensure a safe future for humanity. The book integrates insights from multiple disciplines, including physics, biology, earth science, computer science, history, anthropology, statistics, international relations, and moral philosophy[1][3][5].

Doing Good Better

Will MacAskill

People who exist in the future deserve some degree of moral consideration.
The future could be very big, very long, and/or very good.
We can reasonably hope to influence whether people in the future exist, and how good or bad their lives are.
So trying to make the world better for future generations is a key priority of our time.

This is the simple four-step argument for 'longtermism' put forward in What We Owe The Future, the latest book from today's guest — University of Oxford philosopher and cofounder of the effective altruism community, Will MacAskill.

Links to learn more, summary and full transcript.

From one point of view this idea is common sense. We work on breakthroughs to treat cancer or end use of fossil fuels not just for people alive today, but because we hope such scientific advances will help our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren as well.

Some who take this longtermist idea seriously work to develop broad-spectrum vaccines they hope will safeguard humanity against the sorts of extremely deadly pandemics that could permanently throw civilisation off track — the sort of project few could argue is not worthwhile.

But Will is upfront that longtermism is also counterintuitive. To start with, he's willing to contemplate timescales far beyond what's typically discussed.

A natural objection to thinking millions of years ahead is that it's hard enough to take actions that have positive effects that persist for hundreds of years, let alone “indefinitely.” It doesn't matter how important something might be if you can't predictably change it.

This is one reason, among others, that Will was initially sceptical of longtermism and took years to come around. He preferred to focus on ending poverty and preventable diseases in ways he could directly see were working.

But over seven years he gradually changed his mind, and in *What We Owe The Future*, Will argues that in fact there are clear ways we might act now that could benefit not just a few but *all* future generations.

The idea that preventing human extinction would have long-lasting impacts is pretty intuitive. If we entirely disappear, we aren't coming back.

But the idea that we can shape human values — not just for our age, but for all ages — is a surprising one that Will has come to more recently.

In the book, he argues that what people value is far more fragile and historically contingent than it might first seem. For instance, today it feels like the abolition of slavery was an inevitable part of the arc of history. But Will lays out that the best research on the topic suggests otherwise.

If moral progress really is so contingent, and bad ideas can persist almost without end, it raises the stakes for moral debate today. If we don't eliminate a bad practice now, it may be with us forever. In today's in-depth conversation, we discuss the possibility of a harmful moral 'lock-in' as well as:

• How Will was eventually won over to longtermism
• The three best lines of argument against longtermism
• How to avoid moral fanaticism
• Which technologies or events are most likely to have permanent effects
• What 'longtermists' do today in practice
• How to predict the long-term effect of our actions
• Whether the future is likely to be good or bad
• Concrete ideas to make the future better
• What Will donates his money to personally
• Potatoes and megafauna
• And plenty more

Chapters:

Rob’s intro (00:00:00)
The interview begins (00:01:36)
What longtermism actually is (00:02:31)
The case for longtermism (00:04:30)
What longtermists are actually doing (00:15:54)
Will’s personal journey (00:22:15)
Strongest arguments against longtermism (00:42:28)
Preventing extinction vs. improving the quality of the future (00:59:29)
Is humanity likely to converge on doing the same thing regardless? (01:06:58)
Lock-in scenario vs. long reflection (01:27:11)
Is the future good in expectation? (01:32:29)
Can we actually predictably influence the future positively? (01:47:27)
Tiny probabilities of enormous value (01:53:40)
Stagnation (02:19:04)
Concrete suggestions (02:34:27)
Where Will donates (02:39:40)
Potatoes and megafauna (02:41:48)

Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell
Transcriptions: Katy Moore