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Making Sense

How Trump 2.0 Could Impact the Global Economy and Markets

Nov 15, 2024
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at J.P. Morgan, offers insights into the potential impact of a second Trump presidency. He discusses how U.S. trade policies and tariffs could affect inflation and growth both domestically and globally. The conversation highlights market reactions and challenges such as currency fluctuations. Kasman also analyzes the implications for U.S.-China trade relations, recent tariff effects on global commodities, and the economic shockwaves that emerging markets may face. It's a deep dive into the future of the global economy.
12:52

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The return of Trump may lead to significant U.S. inflation and a mixed impact on growth due to policies like increased tariffs.
  • Global trade dynamics could worsen, especially with China, as U.S. tariffs threaten international relations and emerging market stability.

Deep dives

Economic Impact of Trump's Policies

The return of Trump to the presidency is poised to influence the U.S. economy significantly, with expectations of a mix of supply and demand shocks. There will likely be a reduction in immigration and an increase in tariffs, particularly affecting imports from China, which may hinder growth while putting upward pressure on inflation. Furthermore, anticipated regulatory resets and fiscal policy changes could generate a positive demand shock; however, these changes will take time to materialize fully. The overall forecast suggests modest growth stability with an upward revision in inflation expectations, though the potential for more aggressive policies poses significant risks.

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