
Making Sense
How Trump 2.0 could impact the global economy and markets
Nov 15, 2024
Bruce Kasman, Chief Economist at J.P. Morgan, offers insights into the potential impact of a second Trump presidency. He discusses how U.S. trade policies and tariffs could affect inflation and growth both domestically and globally. The conversation highlights market reactions and challenges such as currency fluctuations. Kasman also analyzes the implications for U.S.-China trade relations, recent tariff effects on global commodities, and the economic shockwaves that emerging markets may face. It's a deep dive into the future of the global economy.
12:52
Episode guests
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- The return of Trump may lead to significant U.S. inflation and a mixed impact on growth due to policies like increased tariffs.
- Global trade dynamics could worsen, especially with China, as U.S. tariffs threaten international relations and emerging market stability.
Deep dives
Economic Impact of Trump's Policies
The return of Trump to the presidency is poised to influence the U.S. economy significantly, with expectations of a mix of supply and demand shocks. There will likely be a reduction in immigration and an increase in tariffs, particularly affecting imports from China, which may hinder growth while putting upward pressure on inflation. Furthermore, anticipated regulatory resets and fiscal policy changes could generate a positive demand shock; however, these changes will take time to materialize fully. The overall forecast suggests modest growth stability with an upward revision in inflation expectations, though the potential for more aggressive policies poses significant risks.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.