HousingWire Daily Mortgage rates, inflation and Trump in 2026
Dec 19, 2025
Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst on mortgage markets and housing economics, joins to discuss the implications of recent inflation data and its impact on mortgage rates. He highlights how a dip in CPI has led to lower rates, potentially boosting housing demand. Logan critiques the reliability of rent measurements and predicts how the Fed may react. The conversation also touches on Trump's remarks regarding interest rates and his potential Federal Reserve picks, alongside an overview of upcoming existing home sales.
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Rents Drove Recent Disinflation
- Recent CPI showed rent deceleration and enough disinflation to push bond yields and mortgage rates lower.
- Logan Mohtashami says this wasn't runaway inflation and helped bring mortgage rates near yearly lows.
Labor, Not Fed, Shaped Yields
- Mortgage spreads and softer labor markets drove yields lower more than Fed policy this year.
- Logan argues growth scares, not Fed moves, largely dictated bond market action in 2024.
Treat One CPI Print With Caution
- Don't overreact to a single CPI print during the government shutdown; the Fed will likely discount it.
- Logan warns the Fed won't place much weight on this noisy report and expects revisions.