Monetary Matters with Jack Farley Doubting Goldilocks | Julian Brigden on Precious Metals, Fed Independence, and the U.S. Dollar
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Sep 28, 2025 
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, shares his insights on precious metals and the U.S. economy. He critiques the Goldilocks narrative, warns about inflation risks, and discusses why foreign markets are outperforming. Bridging tech and mining, he explains how a weak dollar favors cyclical investments. Julian also deconstructs the current gold rally and offers trading tactics for navigating the volatile metals market. His views on Fed independence and potential reforms raise crucial questions about the dollar's future.
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Soft Landing Odds Are Low
- Historical tightening cycles usually end in recession, making Goldilocks unlikely.
- Julian estimates soft-landing odds near 20–30% based on past cycles and momentum in labor markets.
Employment Momentum Predicts Recessions
- The labor market is a momentum indicator and losing momentum typically triggers recessions.
- Julian sees warning signs in unemployment subcomponents even though widespread layoffs haven't arrived yet.
Financial Repression Shifts Risk To The Dollar
- Running the economy hot while suppressing yields risks a bond revolt and currency weakness.
- Financial repression or yield control could shift pressure from rates to the dollar and other vulnerabilities.