Cognizant Classic Picks

Feb 26, 2025

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Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National.

-Discussing top 6 names on odds board

-2 p2p

-3 outrights

-Sleeper

-3 FRP's

-2 lineups

-Scoring

-Best Bet

Golf Preview Podcast: Cognizant Classic at PGA National

Introduction

[Will Doctor] (0:15 - 0:28)

Will Doctor kicks off with enthusiasm, promising sharp picks for the Cognizant Classic at PGA National, setting a lively tone.

Week 8 Recap: Mexico Open at Vedanta

[Will Doctor] (0:39 - 32:10)

Brian Campbell (270-1) won his first PGA Tour title at Vedanta, relying on strategy (293-yard driving average) over power. He beat Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff, aided by a fortunate break.

Betting Recap:
Akshay Bhatia: Top-10 (2-1) cashed, outright (14-1) didn’t.
Steven Jaeger: 30-1 outright missed despite contention.
Ricky Castillo: 100-1 outright tied 55th.
Taylor Moore: Top-20 (+170) failed due to weak approaches.
Aldrich Potgieter: Top-20 (+320) cashed with second place.

Cognizant Classic Preview: Course Insights

PGA National’s Champion Course tests accuracy with water on 15 holes and Bermuda greens. Key skills: driving precision, approach shots (125-190 yards), and Bermuda putting.

Top Six Favorites Analysis

Shane Lowry (20-1): Good course fit but weak Bermuda putting (lost shots in 6 of 8 events).
Russell Henley (22-1): Accurate driver, elite Bermuda putter; top-10 bet at 2-1.
Sung J.M. (25-1): Past winner, but recent approach play lags.
Daniel Berger (25-1): Precise driver, strong Bermuda putter; outright bet at 25-1.
Sepp Strzok (25-1): Driving accuracy down; chipping shaky.
Taylor Pendreth (30-1): Solid tee-to-green, but putting inconsistent here.

Picks to Place and Outright Winners

Picks to Place:
Russell Henley: Top-10 at 2-1 (MGM)
Ryan Girard: Top-20 at +225 (MGM) – Consecutive top-20s, hot putter.
Outright Winners:
Daniel Berger: 25-1 (Caesars)
Denny McCarthy: 35-1 (DraftKings) – Peak approach play, top putter.
Ryan Girard: 75-1 (BetOnline) – High value despite chipping flaws.

Sleeper and First-Round Picks

Sleeper: Matteo Manassero: Top-20 at +550 (MGM) – Accuracy fits course.
First-Round Picks:
Ryan Girard: Top-10 after Round 1 at +550 (MGM) – 4th in first-round scoring.
Russell Henley: Top-10 after Round 1 at +333 (MGM) – 9th in first-round scoring.

Lineups and Predictions

DraftKings Lineup (50K): Henley, McCarthy, Spieth, Girard, Salinda, Manassero.
PGA Tour Lineup: Berger, McCarthy (captain), Girard, Henley; Bench: Manassero, Horschel.
Scoring Prediction: 15-under (good weather).
Best Bet: Denny McCarthy: Top-10 at +320 (MGM).