Ask Haviv Anything Episode 38: What will it take to defeat Hamas? With Prof. John Spencer
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Aug 27, 2025 
Prof. John Spencer, an expert in urban warfare strategies, shares insights on the current state of Hamas and the ongoing military operations in Gaza. He discusses the critical shifts in IDF strategies and the importance of territory management in defeating guerrilla tactics. The conversation also delves into the complexities of post-conflict reconstruction, emphasizing the need for effective local governance and humanitarian considerations. Spencer explores Israel's resilience and the diverse societal responses to the prolonged conflict, offering a nuanced view of the challenges ahead.
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Gideon's Chariot Evolved Operationally
- Gideon's Chariot shifted the IDF from short raids to larger clear-and-hold operations but evolved multiple times since Oct 7.
- Clear-hold-build requires staying in place, not the repeated in-and-out raids Israel used early on.
Plan For Counterinsurgency Math
- Do account for counterinsurgency math: secure ratios of roughly 20 security forces per 1,000 civilians to sustain stability.
- Plan forces and rotations realistically because holding populated areas requires large, long-term troop commitments.
Reservist Culture Limits Long Holds
- Israel's reserve-based military culture makes permanent holding forces politically and socially difficult.
- Rotating reservists undermine the continuous presence needed for classic clear-hold-build success.