20VC: Anduril Co-Founder on How a Trump Administration Changes the Defence Industry | What Happens Between China vs Taiwan, Israel vs Palestine, Russia vs Ukraine | How Software Changes War & Why TikTok Should Be Banned with Matt Grimm
Nov 11, 2024
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Matt Grimm, Co-founder and COO of Anduril Industries, discusses how a potential Trump administration may reshape U.S. foreign policy concerning conflicts like China/Taiwan and Russia/Ukraine. He considers the future of warfare, highlighting the role of AI and robotics in military evolution. The conversation covers the implications for the defense industry with rising funding, examining whether it's facing a bubble. Grimm also reflects on the need for innovative procurement practices and the importance of effective technology in modern combat.
The U.S. must focus on reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains to ensure national security and military readiness amid rising tensions.
The transformation of defense technology through software and AI is pivotal, enhancing operational effectiveness by integrating various data sources for real-time insights.
Political leadership changes impact procurement practices more than overall industry trajectory, highlighting the need for innovation and modernization in defense funding strategies.
Deep dives
China as the Greatest Threat
China is viewed as the primary adversary due to its ongoing human rights violations, particularly regarding the Uyghur population, and its restrictive policies on free speech and political assembly. The mindset of the Chinese Communist Party stands in stark contrast to Western values regarding human rights, making China a significant concern for global stability. The speaker highlights the importance of recognizing China's ambition in empire-building and its efforts to exert control over critical industries. This concern extends to China's potential military ambitions, particularly in relation to Taiwan, and its influence over global supply chains, particularly for rare earth materials.
The Future of Defense Technology
The transformation of defense technology through software and AI is seen as a critical area of innovation. Companies are working to unify data from various sensors and platforms to provide real-time information to armed forces, significantly enhancing operational effectiveness. This approach is exemplified by the development of systems that integrate inputs from soldiers, drones, aircraft, and satellites, creating a comprehensive battlefield overview. The adoption of agile software development methodologies in defense sectors is anticipated to lead to major advancements in military capabilities.
Politics and Defense Industry Dynamics
The speaker emphasizes that political leadership changes do not drastically alter the defense industry’s trajectory; rather, the focus should be on appointing individuals who recognize the urgency for innovation and modernization within defense procurement. There is optimism that a new administration could spur more dynamic funding strategies and a shift away from outdated contracting methods. This includes advocating for a shift from cost-plus contracts to fixed-price contracts, which could incentivize efficiency and effectiveness. The speaker reflects on their positive experience under both Republican and Democratic administrations, suggesting that the company can succeed regardless of political affiliations.
Supply Chain Independence from China
The conversation touches on the necessity for the West, particularly the U.S., to establish independence from Chinese-controlled supply chains. The reduction of reliance on China for essential technology components, including semiconductors and raw materials, is deemed crucial for national security. A recommendation for relocating these supply chains back to the U.S. and allied countries is considered a strategic move to stabilize the economy and maintain technological leadership. This shift is not only about protecting jobs but also about ensuring military readiness in the face of potential conflict.
Future Conflict Scenarios and Preparedness
The discussion highlights the distinctions between current military engagements, like in Ukraine, and potential future conflicts. The possibility of a hot war primarily hinges on how nations navigate their relationships, with particular emphasis on Taiwan and China's aspirations. An increase in military tensions could emerge from territorial disputes or disruptions in international shipping routes, especially in the South China Sea. Therefore, preparedness through superior technology and defense capabilities is emphasized as a deterrent against escalating conflicts.
Impact of Childhood on Future Ambitions
The speaker reflects on their childhood experiences and how they have shaped their personal and professional ambitions. Witnessing financial instability between their parents led to a firm determination to build a different future for their own family. This formative experience instilled a sense of obligation to ensure financial security and to thrive in whatever field they pursued. The conversation evolves to highlight the importance of good relationships and personal fulfillment over mere financial success, indicating that contentment often comes from meaningful connections rather than material wealth.
Matt Grimm is the Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer of Anduril Industries, an American defense technology company that specializes in advanced autonomous systems. To date, Anduril has raised over $3.7BN with the latest round pricing the company at a whopping $14BN. Before Anduril, Matt was a Principal at Mithril Capital Management alongside Peter Thiel. Before Mithril, Matt was an early hire at Palantir, where he was deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan to ensure U.S. forces had the best technology for the mission.
In Today’s Episode with Matt Grimm We Discuss:
1. China/Taiwan, Ukraine/Russia & Israel/Gaza:
How will a Trump administration change US foreign policy and approach to conflict?
Will China invade Taiwan? What does Matt expect to see happen there?
Will Trump put an end to the war in Ukraine? What will be the outcome?
Is Israel wrong to defend itself in the way it has? How will the situation in Gaza be resolved?
2. The Future of War:
What will war look like in the future?
How is software and autonomy changing the world of war?
Why does the incentive structure of governments buying military equipment need to change around the world?
Will we see a world of robodogs fighting on battlefields? What does weaponry of the future look like?
3. Are We In a Defence Bubble:
With the massive increase in funding to defence companies, does Matt think we are in a defence bubble?
What does Matt believe all investors should know about the defence industry before they make investments in the space?
What should defence founders at the early stage know about building a defence company at scale? What changes?
Who will be the buyer for the many defence companies that have raised early rounds of funding and go out of business?
4. Matt Grimm: AMA:
Does money make you happy?
What is the biggest luxury purchase you have made?
Should TikTok be banned in the US?
What would Matt do today if he knew he would not fail?
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