Tyler Cowen: Why Do We Refuse To Learn From History?
Jan 10, 2025
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Tyler Cowen, Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University, dives into the phenomenon he calls The Great Forgetting. He explores why society neglects crucial economic lessons from the past, particularly those from the 1970s regarding inflation and crime policies. Cowen discusses the implications of misinformation and the erosion of historical knowledge in policymaking. Moreover, he examines evolving perceptions of crime in cities and the challenges faced in immigration policies amid polarized politics.
The Great Forgetting underscores society's alarming tendency to overlook important economic lessons, leading to the repetition of past mistakes.
Comparing past inflation crises, particularly from the 1970s, emphasizes the critical need to learn from historical economic dynamics to avoid policy errors.
Rising crime perceptions, despite stable rates, highlight the necessity of addressing public anxiety and fostering community safety perceptions.
Deep dives
The Concept of the Great Forgetting
The Great Forgetting refers to the phenomenon of society losing awareness of vital historical lessons, particularly in economics and public policy. An example highlighted is the resurgence of ideas like rent control, which had previously demonstrated detrimental effects such as housing shortages and corruption. This forgetting extends to more recent challenges, like inflation, where lessons from past crises seem to be overlooked as new generations advocate for similar misguided economic policies. The podcast emphasizes the dangerous implications of this forgetting as it contributes to repeating harmful mistakes in governance and social stability.
Lessons from the 1970s Inflation Crisis
The inflation of the 1970s serves as a critical point of comparison with recent economic challenges, revealing the necessity of understanding past financial dynamics. Inflation figures from the 1970s reached alarming heights with significant and enduring consequences, driven by both monetary policy and oil price shocks. In contrast, while inflation recently peaked at lower levels without plunging the economy into recession, the repercussions on real wages and production were nonetheless significant. This comparison stresses the importance of learning from different inflationary episodes to avoid repeating past policy errors.
Public Perception of Crime and Disorder
Concerns about recent spikes in crime, particularly in urban settings like New York City, reflect a complex interplay between actual crime rates and public perception of disorder. Factors such as the pandemic, social movements, and changing police practices have led to increased anxiety surrounding crime, despite some statistics indicating that certain crime categories are not as severe as perceived. The rise in public disorder, including visible drug use and general lawlessness, contributes to this perception, causing citizens to feel less safe even in the absence of dramatic increases in crime rates. Addressing these perceptions and fostering a sense of orderliness within communities is crucial for societal well-being.
The Role of Government in Economic Outcomes
Debate exists around the government's role in economic management and support, especially in contexts like public health or technological advancement. The concept of state capacity libertarianism advocates for a government that efficiently performs essential functions while allowing the private sector to thrive. Programs like Operation Warp Speed are cited as examples where government intervention successfully facilitated critical advancements, particularly in vaccine development during the pandemic. This highlights the importance of effective governance in addressing societal challenges while avoiding excessive involvement that could stifle innovation.
The Cultural Underpinnings of Birth Rates
The decline in birth rates across many societies raises significant cultural and economic concerns, reflecting deeper social dynamics at play. Issues such as the disconnect between men and women in forming families, as well as the impact of economic instability and employment on parental decision-making, are critical areas for exploration. There is skepticism surrounding government incentives aimed at increasing birth rates since they often fall short of sustainable solutions, as evidenced by experiences in countries like Hungary. Understanding cultural attitudes and creating environments supportive of family formation could be more effective approaches to addressing declining birth rates.
We're told in school that we study history so as not to repeat its mistakes. But what if those lessons aren't sticking? Today's guest regularly invokes what he calls The Great Forgetting. The striking thing about this collective amnesia is that it doesn't apply only to distant, ancient history, but hard lessons learned only a few decades ago—lessons about inflation, price controls, and crime.
Tyler Cowen is the Holbert L. Harris Professor of Economics at George Mason University, Director of the Mercatus Center, and host of the podcast Conversations with Tyler. He and his colleague Alex Tabbarok founded the popular and influential economics blog Marginal Revolution and recently launched their joint show, the Marginal Revolution Podcast, which has released a limited series on the unlearned economic and cultural lessons of the 1970s.