Central bank divergence: Why it's happening and why it matters
Jun 4, 2024
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Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist, Former chief economists of the ECB and IMF discuss Central bank divergence, implications for economies and markets, contrasting policies in G10 economies, economic recovery paths post-pandemic, historical rate hike patterns, currency volatility predictions amidst global monetary policy variations
Central banks are diverging in their monetary policies, with the Fed staying put while the ECB contemplates rate cuts.
Differences in inflation sources and growth paths between the US and Europe influence central bank policies and potential currency depreciation.
Deep dives
Central Bank Policy Divergence
Central bank divergence is becoming apparent with the European Central Bank expected to cut rates while the Fed remains on hold. The reasoning behind this shift involves understanding the global financial cycle and the interdependence among major economies. Differentiation in economic needs is driving these changes, with countries like Sweden and the Euro area having strong cases for easing.
Implications of Central Bank Policies
The US and Europe exhibit fundamental differences in inflation sources and growth paths, impacting central bank policies. Potential central bank divergence may lead to currency depreciation in some regions, affecting inflation and economic recovery. While market emphasis on divergences is high, assessing the scope for divergence and its implications is crucial for future monetary policy decisions.
Currency Volatility and Policy Divergence
Currency volatility is influenced by central bank policies and macro divergencies, such as expected rate cuts by the ECB and BOE. The strength of the dollar is tied to expectations of future rate cuts and divergence in US and European policies. Potential limits to the dollar's strength may arise from export industries impacted by a strong dollar, with implications extending to international cooperation and the upcoming US presidential election.
The Federal Reserve has historically led a relatively synchronized monetary policy cycle across the major economies, but this cycle seems to be shaping up differently. Goldman Sachs' Chief Economist and Head of Goldman Sachs Research Jan Hatzius, Peter Praet, former chief economist of the European Central Bank, and Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist of the IMF, discuss the implications of central bank divergence for economies and markets. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Central Bank Divergence: Room to Run?
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